The 12 year chart below shows some interesting correlations between the beginnings of the 2003–20007 bull market and now. In fact the months and SPY values lines up almost exactly. The 2003 bull started in March, and in January 2004 was trading at the 113/114 level (vertical black line) that we are at now. Not that history has to repeat itself, but I think the market psychology is similar. Right now I can’t bring myself to be bullish, there have been way too many days without any meaningful corrections. I’m at about 80% cash.
12 year chart of SPY, click to enlarge
