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Are we reliving 2004? Daily level correlation with SPY…

 
Thursday, January 7th, 2010 | Vance Harwood
 

Last November I posted regarding the interesting correlation (at the day of the month level) between SPY prices in 2003 and 2009. I updated that analysis with the last 44 days of data and things still line up surprisingly well.   Six years later to the day, the SPY closing values are just slightly over  a percent from  each other (112.93 vs 114.19).  The normalized volumes are still tracking, and visually at least it looks like the recent decrease in real volatility is mirroring what happened in January 2004.    If this correlation keeps up we won’t see real volatility kick up for another 3 weeks.  The black vertical line marks where my data stopped on my 1-Nov-09 post.

SPY price and normalized volume comparison, click to enlarge

SPY price and normalized volume comparison, click to enlarge

2004 Redux?

 
Thursday, January 7th, 2010 | Vance Harwood
 

The 12 year chart below shows some interesting correlations between the beginnings of the 2003–20007 bull market and now. In fact the months and SPY values lines up almost exactly. The 2003 bull started in March, and in January 2004 was trading at the 113/114 level (vertical black line) that we are at now. Not that history has to repeat itself, but I think the market psychology is similar. Right now I can’t bring myself to be bullish, there have been way too many days without any meaningful corrections. I’m at about 80% cash.

12 year chart of SPY

12 year chart of SPY, click to enlarge

Trading in IRA accounts, and avoiding “free riding”

 
Saturday, February 25th, 2012 | Vance Harwood
 

As much as possible I try to trade in my IRA accounts—in order to defer taxes of course. It is a bit counter intuitive to be doing more speculative activities in a retirement account, but this approach supports my goals:

  • Achieving good returns
  • With reasonable risks
  • While compounding growth

If your money is in Roth accounts, all the better, but most people interested in trading in their IRAs are restricted to traditional IRAs.

There are restrictions on what trades you can do in an IRA account.  For example you can’t short a stock in an IRA account, but option restrictions have eased some over the years,  and market innovations like short ETFs (e.g., SH, SDS) have effectively bypassed some of the more onerous restrictions.    Brokers vary in what they allow in IRA accounts, so pays to ask around.   Fidelity for example allows me to do some types of equity option spreads, while Schwab does not.   Covered calls and protective puts on long positions are broadly available within IRAs.

For a more general treatment on trading in IRAs see this post.  The rest of this post will deal with free riding and how to avoid it.

Read More

Projections for 2010

 
Monday, March 22nd, 2010 | Vance Harwood
 

As much as I wish there was a system that we could turn the crank and make lots of money on the markets, I think the market is too good for that to work.  We are reduced to educated guesswork.  Some guesses:

  • The S&P 500 will move from its astonishing trendline to a slightly down trending sideways market for 6 months before it starts moving up in a sustained fashion.  I project the SPY low will be at around 100, 10% off recent highs. The chart below indicates we have already moved off of the trendline. This guess is based on what happened in somewhat similar situations in 1999 and 2004 (big uptrends after significant bottoms).  Click on graph to enlarge.

12 year look at SPY

  • The VIX index will continue its downward trend, but the rate of decay will slow.   Lows around 16 by the end of 2010.
  • Interest rates  will increase.   This prediction seems like a no-brainer, but as usual the timing is the trick.    It seems that there is very little risk that interest rates will go down this year.  We should be able to make money on that.
  • The price of oil will continue to go up.   Reviving economies will consume more oil, and the oil producers will be happy to let that happen. But don’t expect another bubble–it takes people longer than a year to forget the bubble collapse in any given asset.
  • Manufacturing will continue to lead us out of this recession.  Real estate, especially high end residential and commercial will not get healthy this year.   Job-less recovery and real-estate hang-over will keep consumers from helping much until the 2nd half of the year.

How to go long on the VIX index

 
Monday, March 12th, 2012 | Vance Harwood
 

For the average investor there are four ways to go long on VIX:

  1. Buy a leveraged exchange traded product (ETP) that tend to track the daily percentage moves of the VIX index.  At the moment there are three of these:  CVOL, UXVY, and TVIX (currently not recommended).
  2. Buy Barclays’ VXX (short term) or VXZ (medium term) Exchange Traded Note (ETN) or one of their competitors that have jumped into this market.   See volatility ticker for a full list of volatility ETN/ETFs.
  3. Buy VXX or VXZ call options  (recently ProShares VIXY and VIXM began offering options too)
  4. Buy VIX call options / short VIX put options

 

Getting the correct greeks for VIX options

 
Monday, March 19th, 2012 | Vance Harwood
 

Most software packages that report option greeks (e.g., delta, gamma, theta, implied volatility) report incorrect values for VIX options. Depending on the date and state of the market they can vary from almost correct to widely wrong–giving truly nonsense numbers.  These packages assume that  the VIX index is the underlying for the VIX options.   This is wrong.   The true underlying is the corresponding VIX future for that month (e.g., January VIX futures for January VIX options).

Read More

Trading VIX options

 
Monday, September 5th, 2011 | Vance Harwood
 

If you want to trade options on fear there are few things you should know:

  1. Your brokerage account needs to be a margin account, and you need to sign up for options trading.   There are various levels of option trading available (e.g., the first level allows covered calls).  My experience is that to trade VIX options you will need to be authorized to trade at the second level.  These levels vary from brokerage to brokerage, so you will have to ask what is required to be long  VIX options.  If you are just getting into options trading this is as high as you want to go anyway. Selling naked calls for example is not something for a rookie to try. Read More

FAQ on VIX, the “Fear Index”

 
Saturday, September 24th, 2011 | Vance Harwood
 
  • Why do they call the VIX Index the “Fear Index” or “Fear Gauge”
    • Because the VIX almost always goes up when the market goes down. The scarier the decline the higher the VIX tends to go. In the worst part of the 2008/2009 bear market it went as high as 80. In Dec 2009 it has been averaging around 22. In strong bull markets it historically bounces between 10 and 15.
  • How can I get quotes for the VIX?
    • For Yahoo Finance use ^VIX
    • For Schwab use $VIX
    • For Fidelity use VIX
    • Google Finance—apparently not available
    • For VIX options quotes—check your broker’s home page, Yahoo Finance (where they seem to come and go), or here
  • How can I buy or short the VIX Index?
    • You can’t short VIX directly.  It is a computed index like the Dow Jones Industrial Average, but instead of stocks this index is related to option prices on the S&P 500 index (SPX). As the options get relatively pricier the VIX index goes higher.
    • You can short VIX indirectly, with proxies that correlate fairly well with the VIX index.  See “Going short on VIX” for details.
  • Is there any way to speculate on the VIX?
    • You can buy options and futures on the VIX. I have not done futures trading on the VIX, but I have done VIX options. While not inherently riskier than options on stocks, these options have some unusual wrinkles and characteristics that you should know about. For example the VIX options typically don’t follow the VIX itself all that well on most days—they tend to not drop as rapidly as the VIX index itself, or climb as fast. This can be really frustrating! In addition the “spread”—the difference between the cost to buy and to sell is quite high on these options. This is never in your favor–this makes it harder to make a profit, but be aware you don’t have the pay the listed prices, you can often buy or sell close to the midpoint of these two prices.
    • There are also multiple ETNs (Exchange Traded Note) and ETFs that are intended to track the VIX index. See Volatility Tickers for a complete list. These trade like stocks (however sometimes they are hard to short).   VXX doesn’t do a particularly good job of tracking the VIX.  It doesn’t jump as much as the VIX in scary times, and structurally it is fated to lose value over time.   It is best suited for short term positions.  See “How to go long on VIX.
    • In addition, XIV is an ETN that is designed to deliver the inverse daily return of  VXX.  This is a good choice when you think the VIX index is going to drop.  See here for more information.
  • Why don’t VIX options track the VIX?
    • For a typical options marketplace to function the option market makers need to be able to buy or sell the thing the options are based on (this is called the “underlying”).  So far no one has figured out how to make the VIX index investible—it is a computed index that can’t be cost effectively replicated in the real world.  Since the VIX index isn’t practical as an underlying VIX options are based on volatility futures that are traded on commodity exchanges.   These volatility futures typically lag the VIX index in both directions, up and down.
    • In normal situations the next volatility future to expire will move about 50% of the VIX index (e.g., if the VIX increases 4% the futures will probably move about 2%).
    • To track the price of the VIX options underlying future for a given month, look at the $10 strike call for that month, split the bid/ask price and add 10.  That will give you a good estimate of the current future’s price.

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VIX quotes, options chains, and correct greeks for VIX options

 
Monday, March 19th, 2012 | Vance Harwood
 

You can get free delayed VIX option quotes at freerealtime.com or Yahoo Finance using the ^VIX symbol.  Go to here for options calenders giving the correct expiration dates (always last trading on a Tuesday, expiration on a Wednesday morning)

Schwab uses $VIX as the ticker symbol, Fidelity uses VIX, Yahoo uses ^VIX.

VIX Settlement values (the price used to evaluate loss/gain at expiration) use symbol VRO  (^VRO for Yahoo, $VRO for Schwab).

The option Greeks (e.g., delta, gamma, theta) and computed IVs for VIX options are computed incorrectly on most broker’s software packages because they incorrectly use the VIX index instead of the appropriate VIX future month as the underlying.  I go through the steps in computing the correct Greeks yourself in this post.

Ex-dividend Dates for Schwab’s quarterly ETFs: SCHA, SCHB, SCHF, SCHG, SCHV, SCHX

 
Sunday, March 11th, 2012 | Vance Harwood
 

2012 Schwab ETF Ex-Dividend and Pay date information

Schwab has now published their ex-dividend / pay dates for all of 2012 for their no-fee ETFs.  The published 2012 dates are:

Ex-Dividend:    19-Mar-12 18-Jun-12  17-Sep-12  17-Dec-12

Pay Dates:   23-Mar-12   22-Jun-12   21-Sep-12   21-Dec-12

Schwab International Equity ETF™ SCHF

Schwab U.S. Small-Cap ETF™ SCHA
Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Value ETF™ SCHV
Schwab U.S. Large–Cap Growth ETF™ SCHG
Schwab U.S. Large-Cap ETF™ SCHX
Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF™ SCHB

Schwab’s distribution / pay dates are very timely — typically only 4 days after ex-dividend.

The  SCHX’s dividend has been similar to SPY’s percentage wise

The SCHX has 750 stocks in it, but appears to closely follow the S&P 500.

If you don’t see the ETF symbol you want there are a lot more here: Dividend, Ex-Dividend, and Paydate / Distribution Date information for ETFs