Last November I posted regarding the interesting correlation (at the day of the month level) between SPY prices in 2003 and 2009. I updated that analysis with the last 44 days of data and things still line up surprisingly well. Six years later to the day, the SPY closing values are just slightly over a percent from each other (112.93 vs 114.19). The normalized volumes are still tracking, and visually at least it looks like the recent decrease in real volatility is mirroring what happened in January 2004. If this correlation keeps up we won’t see real volatility kick up for another 3 weeks. The black vertical line marks where my data stopped on my 1-Nov-09 post.
The Archives
2004 Redux?
The 12 year chart below shows some interesting correlations between the beginnings of the 2003–20007 bull market and now. In fact the months and SPY values lines up almost exactly. The 2003 bull started in March, and in January 2004 was trading at the 113/114 level (vertical black line) that we are at now. Not that history has to repeat itself, but I think the market psychology is similar. Right now I can’t bring myself to be bullish, there have been way too many days without any meaningful corrections. I’m at about 80% cash.
Projections for 2010
As much as I wish there was a system that we could turn the crank and make lots of money on the markets, I think the market is too good for that to work. We are reduced to educated guesswork. Some guesses:
- The S&P 500 will move from its astonishing trendline to a slightly down trending sideways market for 6 months before it starts moving up in a sustained fashion. I project the SPY low will be at around 100, 10% off recent highs. The chart below indicates we have already moved off of the trendline. This guess is based on what happened in somewhat similar situations in 1999 and 2004 (big uptrends after significant bottoms). Click on graph to enlarge.
- The VIX index will continue its downward trend, but the rate of decay will slow. Lows around 16 by the end of 2010.
- Interest rates will increase. This prediction seems like a no-brainer, but as usual the timing is the trick. It seems that there is very little risk that interest rates will go down this year. We should be able to make money on that.
- The price of oil will continue to go up. Reviving economies will consume more oil, and the oil producers will be happy to let that happen. But don’t expect another bubble–it takes people longer than a year to forget the bubble collapse in any given asset.
- Manufacturing will continue to lead us out of this recession. Real estate, especially high end residential and commercial will not get healthy this year. Job-less recovery and real-estate hang-over will keep consumers from helping much until the 2nd half of the year.
Ex-dividend Dates for Schwab’s quarterly ETFs: SCHA, SCHB, SCHF, SCHG, SCHV, SCHX
2012 Schwab ETF Ex-Dividend and Pay date information
Schwab has now published their ex-dividend / pay dates for all of 2012 for their no-fee ETFs. The published 2012 dates are:
Ex-Dividend: 19-Mar-12 18-Jun-12 17-Sep-12 17-Dec-12
Pay Dates: 23-Mar-12 22-Jun-12 21-Sep-12 21-Dec-12
Schwab International Equity ETF™ SCHF
Schwab U.S. Small-Cap ETF™ SCHA
Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Value ETF™ SCHV
Schwab U.S. Large–Cap Growth ETF™ SCHG
Schwab U.S. Large-Cap ETF™ SCHX
Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF™ SCHB
Schwab’s distribution / pay dates are very timely — typically only 4 days after ex-dividend.
The SCHX’s dividend has been similar to SPY’s percentage wise
The SCHX has 750 stocks in it, but appears to closely follow the S&P 500.
If you don’t see the ETF symbol you want there are a lot more here: Dividend, Ex-Dividend, and Paydate / Distribution Date information for ETFs










