Schwab stealth dividends — can you guess the pattern?

Update

Schwab posted their 2010 ex-dividend / distribution dates for their no-fee ETFs here.

Original post…

Schwab’s new no-commission ETFs went ex-dividend last Monday, March 22nd.   The distribution date is 26-March–only four days later!   I had guessed Schwab would align with the quarterly iShares funds ex-dividends, but apparently they have decided to go it alone with apparently semi-random, unannounced ex-dividend dates.  The dividends to be paid were posted recently.  The distributions:

SCHA   $0.07

SCHB   $0.11

SCHG  $0.05

SCHV  $0.14

SCHX   $0.10  (I had guessed $0.12)

The two ex-dividend dates we have since the funds started, 23-Dec-09, a Thursday, and 22-Mar-10, a Monday, don’t suggest a pattern I can see.   Ex-dividend dates tend to follow a week / day of week pattern (e.g., Thursday on the 3rd week of the month), or a day of the month (e.g., 1st of the month unless it is not a business day).   The December date was the 17th business day, and the March date was the 16th, so not a usable pattern there either.  Guess we will have to wait another quarter to get another data point.   In the meantime I’m going to guess and predict the next Schwab fund ex-dividend date will be on 21-June-2010.