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Back into Oil

 
Friday, April 30th, 2010 | Vance Harwood
 

I did covered calls on USO,  selling-to-open the 41 May calls at 1.33 and buying USO at 41.47 for a net investment of 40.17.    The US economic situation continues to look up, and the oil spill in the Gulf will do nothing to help the supply situation.  Plus it gives companies an excuse to raise oil prices…

Going short on VIX?

 
Friday, March 9th, 2012 | Vance Harwood
 
Unlike the S&P 500 or Dow Jones Index there is no way to directly invest in the VIX index.  I’m sure some really smart people have tried to figure out how to go long or short on this computed volatility index, but currently there’s just no way to do it directly.  Instead, you have to invest in a security that attempts to track VIX.  None of them do a great job of this.   I’ve given a short answer and a long answer below on how to best short the VIX given the current choices.  Take your pick.
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Short Answer
  • To go short on VIX buy XIV
    • XIV attempts the opposite percentage moves of VXX.  Since VXX only manages about 50% of the VIX’s percentage moves you should expect XIV to have a similar behavior.  For more on XIV see this post.

Long Answer

Read More

Bull Spread — SPY at 121.0

 
Friday, April 23rd, 2010 | Vance Harwood
 

One alternative to a covered call is a bull spread.  You give up some premium in exchange for significantly reducing your downside risk.  I bought SPY 118 May calls at 3.91 and sold 121 May calls at 1.82 for a net debit of 2.09.  SPY was right at 121 at the time, so the the 121 calls were right at the money–which is the  maximum premium point (the 120 and 122 calls had about .45 less premium).  Maximum profit on this trade is 0.91,   maximum loss is the debit amount — 2.09.

VIX option 2010 April expiration — settlement value 15.94

 
Wednesday, April 21st, 2010 | Vance Harwood
 

The settlement value for the VIX index options for April was 15.94 This settlement value is quoted under the symbol VRO (^VRO for Yahoo, $VRO for Schwab). Today’s 21-April opening value for the VIX index was 15.80, so the difference was a relatively small 0.14 (.9%). The settlement value and the real time VIX index quotes are computed different ways, so there is usually a small difference.

TIP dividend history

 
Wednesday, December 28th, 2011 | Vance Harwood
 

The data below is from iShares web site.

Ex-dividend, and pay/distribution dates for TIP are here.

If you would like the dividend history for another security, see this post.

 

DVY Dividend History

 
Wednesday, December 28th, 2011 | Vance Harwood
 

The DVY dividend history data below was taken from the iShares web site.

Ex-dividend, and pay/distribution dates for DVY are here.

If you would like the dividend history for another security, see this post.

 

DIA dividend history

 
Friday, February 17th, 2012 | Vance Harwood
 

 

Ex-dividend and pay / distribution information for DIA is here.

DIA Dividend History

If you would like the dividend history for another security, see this post.

XLU Dividend History

 
Wednesday, December 28th, 2011 | Vance Harwood
 

XLU’s  ex-dividend dates and pay dates are below.   Data is from SPDR’s web site.

If you would like the dividend history for another security, see this post.

 

SYMBOL --DESCRIPTIONGroup --Q1 Ex-dividendQ1 Distribution / Paydate
XLEEnergy Select Sector SPDR FundSPDR Sector16-Mar-1228-Mar-12
XLFFinancial Select Sector SPDR FundSPDR Sector16-Mar-1228-Mar-12
XLIIndustrial Select Sector SPDR FundSPDR Sector16-Mar-1228-Mar-12
XLPConsumer Staples Select Sector SPDR FundSPDR Sector16-Mar-1228-Mar-12
XLUUtilities Select Sector SPDR FundSPDR Sector16-Mar-1228-Mar-12

 

If you don’t see the ETF symbol you want there are a lot more here: Dividend, Ex-Dividend, and Paydate / Distribution Date information for ETFs

 

2010 — overachieving compared to 2004

 
Monday, March 12th, 2012 | Vance Harwood
 

The S&P 500 has already reached levels this year that weren’t reached until December 2004 in the tech stock crash recovery.   The volume levels are underwhelming, but on almost every other front the bulls are celebrating.  It doesn’t hurt that business continue to report very good numbers.   It is hard to get a good doom and gloom mood going with folks like Intel and IBM beating  analyst’s  numbers.  Malaise in the financials could spread if Goldman gets taken down a few notches, but after a weekend to think about it investors evidently decided that it wasn’t enough to derail the whole recovery.

My tendency is to react too quickly to the market’s moves—so I’m trying to be patient.    I wouldn’t be surprised to see this correction last a bit longer, the market seldom jumps back up immediately after a blow-off day like last Friday.    The VXX continues to build popularity on down days—it traded over 22 million shares on Friday—which looks to be 7 million over their previous record.

SPY 2004 vs 2010,  click to enlarge

SPY 2004 vs 2010, click to enlarge

Dividend capture with covered calls—too hot, too cold, or just right!

 
Wednesday, December 7th, 2011 | Vance Harwood
 

If you have general questions about dividends see Top 10 questions about dividends.

One strategy for capturing dividends is to buy the stock/ETF and then sell calls against that security as a hedge—a covered call.  The value of the short calls moves in the opposite direction of the stock/ETF, providing a hedge.   There are three major variables with this strategy:

1. How many days before the ex-dividend date do you put the position in place?
2. What strike price do you select for the options?

3. How many days until the options expire?

Your risk profile, playing with these variables, can be generalized into the three situations below:

Too cold (too low a risk)    Calls too deep in the money
  • If you sell deep in the money (ITM) options you may feel you’ve found the golden goose.  The calls provide a great hedge, virtually eliminating risk from your position.   Unfortunately, your calls will almost certainly be assigned the evening before the ex-dividend day.  The owners of the calls are not about to let you get away with collecting dividends with such low risk, so they exercise the option you sold them.  They call away your stock and they collect the dividend.  Your position is closed out—no dividend for you.  The only profit you might have is from any premium present when you created the position (if your net investment was less than the strike price).   Some people use this strategy hoping that their options will not be assigned, and not all are, but in my experience the percentage not assigned is very low.

Too hot  (too much risk)    Calls without enough hedge value,  calls that don’t expire for a long time

  • If you sell options that have a strike price that is at or above the current market price of the stock/ETF you can collect a significant premium, and signficantly lower the risk of having your stock assigned.  However, since the value of the options is relatively small (perhaps .5% of the value of the stock) you don’t have much downside protection.   A few bad days on the market can wipe out a year’s worth of dividend capture profits.
  • Not having your stock assigned is good from a dividend collection standpoint, but it is bad if your options have weeks until they expire.  If your calls have a while to run you will see the premium on your unassigned options increase by about the amount of the dividend on the ex-dividend day.   Since you are short these calls your net profit on ex-dividend day will be about zero.   Until the premium on the option decays away, ultimately going to zero at expiration, your position is usually not profitable.   While you wait for the premium on the call to decay you are exposed to market risk—this can be very unpleasant.
  • Just right
    • What I have found to be a good combination is:
      • Find stocks/ETFs where the options will expire within 10 business days of the ex-dividend date
      • Create the covered call position about a week before the ex-dividend date
      • Choose a strike price that gives you a premium about equal to the dividend value.
    • This recipe will usually result in a covered call position that will be assigned on the evening before the ex-dividend date.  You typically don’t collect the dividend, but since the option is closed out you keep the option premium which is roughly equal to the dividend amount.
    • The calls will provide a decent hedge against risk.  Not enough to protect against a major market move, but they do provide significant protection
    • If the stock/ETF value goes down after you put the covered call in place then the chances of call assignment decrease—bettering your chances of collecting the dividend.  If you do collect the dividend  the breakeven point on your position is improved, and your maximum profit potential goes up by the dividend amount.
    • If the bid / ask spreads on the stocks / options are significant you will probably need to use a combo order to get a decent profit potential.
    • While ok in flat or rising market—this position will not hedge a serious bear move—be prepared to bail out if the market goes seriously south

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