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Doubling up on Oil, betting on VIX dropping

 
Monday, March 12th, 2012 | Vance Harwood
 

Did covered calls on Oil — bought USO at 37.19, sold-to-open May 37 calls at 1.02 for a net investment of 36.18.

Created a bear spread on VIX options today.   Betting on VIX going down is forecasting that the market in general will be flat or positive.  I sold-to-open June VIX 16 calls at 10.26, bought  June  VIX 32.5 calls at 1.88 for a net credit of  8.38.  I was able to approximately split the bid/ask prices with my combo order.   At the time of the order the spreads were approximately 10.00 / 10.60 on the June 16 options and 1.80/1.95 on the June 32.5 calls.  Going with the published bid/ask prices leaves money on the table.

The VIX cash index was around 28.5 at the time my order filled.   I initially tried to go short on VXX, but Schwab had VXX in the “hard to borrow” category this morning.   I suspect lots of people were trying to short the VXX today.   I went with June options rather than May because there are only 7 days left on the May VIX options–I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see one more down leg in this correction.    I expect the June options will move much down much slower than the VIX index as the market moves away from fear mode.

Crash, bounce, or sideways — what’s next?

 
Tuesday, May 11th, 2010 | Vance Harwood
 

It’s 12:41AM Eastern time, 10-May-2010 and the Asian markets are up—evidently they are liking the central banks moves to shore up the Euro.   I think Greece’s days in the Euro camp are numbered—maybe 6 to 18 months.   The UK has shown that it is perfectly OK to be a member of the EU without being on the Euro, and I believe Germany and France will soon tire of bailing out Greece when their empty promises of fiscal reform don’t pan out.   Devaluing a currency is a much less painful way out of a crisis like this and I think all parties will eventually come to that conclusion.

Regarding the market for the next couple of days, I think there is too much fear out there for a sustained rebound, but other than that I don’t have strong opinions on what’s going to happen.  I’m about 80% in cash, and happy to be there right now.  Not losing money isn’t a glamorous goal, but from first hand experience a week like last week is no fun for the buy and hold crowd.  When markets go down, they go so fast—even without the help of warring computerized trading programs.

The 2003/2004 vs 2009/2010 tracking for SPY got back in sync on last Thursday—when SPY matched its 6 year old value again.   If I had only bet on my own hypothesis (that SPY 2010 will continue to roughly track SPY 2004) I would have made a boat load of money going short last week.  If the synchronicity continues SPY in  2010 will show much wider swings than 2004.  Looking at the graphs, the big question is whether the 2004 bottom trend line will be the 2010 bottom line too, or will my already projected 2010 bottom line turn out to be more like it.

SPY 2003/2004 vs 2009/2010, click to enlarge

SPY 2003/2004 vs 2009/2010, click to enlarge

Playing for a bounce in oil

 
Wednesday, May 5th, 2010 | Vance Harwood
 

I closed out the option portion of my covered call on USO, buying back the 41 May call options at .30 (sold them at 1.33).    It’s tempting to sell 39 calls now, they are at around .8 right now, but I’m pretty bullish on USO bouncing back.