I continue to monitor the correlation between the 2004 values of SPY v.s. the 2010 version. The summer of 2004 was a sideways, slightly declining market and the summer of 2010 seems to be following suit. I was curious how the US treasury interest rates between the two periods compared, so I looked up some data. The yield curves in both time frames are similar—steep. The differential between 2 year bonds and 5 year bonds in 2004 was 1.11 percent, compared to 1.25 percent now–so that is pretty close also. In 2003 and 2009 this differential peaked around 1.6 and has been in decline since (see below).
http://www.tradersnarrative.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/, click to enlarge
The updated values of SPY and VIX are shown below:
SPY 2004 vs 2010, Click to enlarge
