The Archives

Browse the content below to find what you're looking for.

CBOE adds more weekly options—and drops a few

Friday, July 30th, 2010

Looking at the 30-July version of  AVAILABLE WEEKLIES spreadsheet on CBOE’s weekly page shows that next week adds some interesting options (USO, CSCO, DNDN, GE) , and drops some that were offered the week before (ABX, POT, XOM).   Evidently the clever folks at CBOE are adding options for some stocks just for the week when they are reporting earnings.   I suspect that USO, on the other hand will be a permanent resident—one I plan to trade.

Recap on SPY weeklies —and some observations

Friday, July 30th, 2010

After creating a position with SPY on Wednesday at 111.07  I added to my covered calls on Thursday, buying SPY at 110.12, selling 110 strike calls  at 0.71.   At one point this morning (Friday) , when SPY was off to about 109.5 my 111 strike calls had dropped from Wednesday’s 0.83 to 0.08.   These strong moves are characteristic of options with only a little time left on them.   With so little premium left on these options I decided to close them out and hope the bounce happening at that point would continue.

SPY obliged, and when it reached the 110 to 110.1 range I re-established my short call position with 110 strike calls at 0.49.   This move capped my upside, but lowered my break even on that lot of stock from 110.22 down to 109.81.   I wasn’t optimistic that SPY would recover all the way back to 111 today, and I prefer to have my stock called away so that I don’t have any exposure to weekend events.

SPY closed at 110.27, so all my stock will be called away.  Most of my 0.375 / share profit came from the Thursday position established at 110.12, but I was pretty pleased to still make a profit on my Wednesday 111.07 SPY purchase—compliments of the small insurance policy provided by the call premiums.

I like the way that short term options provide a little cushion against contrary moves, plus generating respectable returns if the underlying goes up or sideways.  The option time premium eroding away gives me an incentive to stick with a position, rather than being tempted to take quick, small profits, or bail out when the market turns ugly.

I really don’t like the asymmetrical risk behavior of covered calls—it severely limits your upside, while providing only a small amount of down side protection.   The good news is that your overall time exposure on the weekly calls is short and if the market really turns ugly your (now) OTM calls will be pretty cheap, even with elevated IV,  if you decide to completely close out your position.

Crossover

Thursday, July 29th, 2010

For the first time since late May the 2010 price of SPY has risen above the 2004 price for the same day.    Not much else to say except this latest rally does offer a little hope that we aren’t riding a bear trend into a double dip.

SPY 2003/2004 vs 2009/2010,  click to enlarge

SPY 2003/2004 vs 2009/2010, click to enlarge

More SPY weeklies while Schwab plays catch-up

Wednesday, July 28th, 2010

When SPY dropped to 111 this morning I started feeling better about writing some calls.  All my weekly options from last week were assigned and I was not unhappy about being in cash earlier this week.   I bought SPY at 111.07 and wrote SPY 111 calls at .85 —they expire Friday.  My breakeven point is 110.22 and my best case profit is .78 per share  which is 0.7% on my investment.

I called the Schwab options desk recently (877-673-7959) and they said that they do plan to offer weekly options, but not for a while.   The person I talked to said it would probably be a month or two.

Predicting the future: 27-July-2010

Tuesday, July 27th, 2010

I am an engineer by training.   It is in my blood to try to engineer a investment solution that gives good upside performance while structurally limiting risk to reasonable levels (e.g., no greater than the upside opportunity).   A few years ago I concluded that I had not figured out a way to do this, and that it is probably impossible.

For example highly rated bonds, usually not considered the riskiest of investments, are sensitive to prevailing interest rates.  AGG, a bond ETF is currently yielding around 3.7% annualized interest.  Its duration, a term that defines the average time until maturity for the bonds in the fund is around 4.    The duration metric quantifies how sensitive a bond investment is to interest rate fluctuations. Read More

Dealing with risk — diversified asset allocation

Sunday, July 25th, 2010

Diversified asset allocation, the belief system that most investment advisors preach—has the “right”  mix of stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities spread out over the entire world.   This investor age dependent mix is rebalanced, typically quarterly, by reducing your investment in areas that have performed well and increasing your stake in areas that are now underweighted—presumably waiting their turn to perform.

I don’t think this is a bad strategy, but it does make the assumption that the future will be like the past (e.g., equities average around 10% growth per year over multi-decade periods, and that some assets classes like bonds and commodities tend to counterbalance trends in equities. Read More

Dealing with risk

Tuesday, July 20th, 2010

I’ve been thinking about various strategies for dealing with limiting losses.   Many investment strategies exhibit moderate upside potential, with large exposure to downside risk.  For example, on average the broad equity markets have shown annualized gains in the range of 10% over the long term, but these gains are often punctuated with large downside risks (market panics) that are deep and fast. This asymmetric behavior has discouraged many investors over the years–when a quick sequence of  losses overwhelms years of building slow profits.   This post on self evident shows that other people are thinking about this, and that the CBOE is developing a product that will attempt to counter the “black swan” events that the Longs dread.

Playing the weeklies…

Monday, July 19th, 2010

Created a covered call position today with SPY at 106.89 and 107 SPY calls expiring this Friday–the 23rd.   The calls sold (to open) at 1.18, giving a 1.2% best case profit for the week if SPY closes Friday above 107.   Fidelity supports trading these weekly options, but apparently Schwab does not.

A near miss on the 15th

Monday, July 19th, 2010

On July 15th the closing price of SPY was only $1.12 away from the July 15th, 2004 closing value of SPY.   The last crossover between the two price histories was in late May, but it wouldn’t take much of a rally to put 2010 on top again.

SPY 2010 vs 2004,  Click to enlarge

SPY 2010 vs 2004, Click to enlarge

The summer of 2010 grinds on

Thursday, July 8th, 2010

The last 3 days have provided a respite, but in general the market has not been kind to the bulls this summer. As in 2004, the 2010 bottom trendline has not proved to be a impermeable barrier–with a SPY close of 102.2 last Friday providing a convincing accent.   Six years ago the market reversed its negative summer slide starting in August–are we three weeks early this year?

SPY & VIX 2004 vs 2010, click to enlarge

SPY & VIX 2004 vs 2010, click to enlarge