Looking at the 30-July version of AVAILABLE WEEKLIES spreadsheet on CBOE’s weekly page shows that next week adds some interesting options (USO, CSCO, DNDN, GE) , and drops some that were offered the week before (ABX, POT, XOM). Evidently the clever folks at CBOE are adding options for some stocks just for the week when they are reporting earnings. I suspect that USO, on the other hand will be a permanent resident—one I plan to trade.
The Archives
Crossover
Thursday, July 29th, 2010Predicting the future: 27-July-2010
Tuesday, July 27th, 2010I am an engineer by training. It is in my blood to try to engineer a investment solution that gives good upside performance while structurally limiting risk to reasonable levels (e.g., no greater than the upside opportunity). A few years ago I concluded that I had not figured out a way to do this, and that it is probably impossible.
For example highly rated bonds, usually not considered the riskiest of investments, are sensitive to prevailing interest rates. AGG, a bond ETF is currently yielding around 3.7% annualized interest. Its duration, a term that defines the average time until maturity for the bonds in the fund is around 4. The duration metric quantifies how sensitive a bond investment is to interest rate fluctuations. Read More
Dealing with risk — diversified asset allocation
Sunday, July 25th, 2010Diversified asset allocation, the belief system that most investment advisors preach—has the “right” mix of stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities spread out over the entire world. This investor age dependent mix is rebalanced, typically quarterly, by reducing your investment in areas that have performed well and increasing your stake in areas that are now underweighted—presumably waiting their turn to perform.
I don’t think this is a bad strategy, but it does make the assumption that the future will be like the past (e.g., equities average around 10% growth per year over multi-decade periods, and that some assets classes like bonds and commodities tend to counterbalance trends in equities. Read More
Dealing with risk
Tuesday, July 20th, 2010I’ve been thinking about various strategies for dealing with limiting losses. Many investment strategies exhibit moderate upside potential, with large exposure to downside risk. For example, on average the broad equity markets have shown annualized gains in the range of 10% over the long term, but these gains are often punctuated with large downside risks (market panics) that are deep and fast. This asymmetric behavior has discouraged many investors over the years–when a quick sequence of losses overwhelms years of building slow profits. This post on self evident shows that other people are thinking about this, and that the CBOE is developing a product that will attempt to counter the “black swan” events that the Longs dread.
A near miss on the 15th
Monday, July 19th, 2010The summer of 2010 grinds on
Thursday, July 8th, 2010The last 3 days have provided a respite, but in general the market has not been kind to the bulls this summer. As in 2004, the 2010 bottom trendline has not proved to be a impermeable barrier–with a SPY close of 102.2 last Friday providing a convincing accent. Six years ago the market reversed its negative summer slide starting in August–are we three weeks early this year?



