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XXV — VXX negative percentage move or VXX short?

 
Monday, January 10th, 2011 | Vance Harwood
 

Update: I do not believe XXV is a good way to short VXX, or volatility in general.  It has very little upside remaining (maximum value will be $40/share),  see this post for more details.

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When the XXV ETN first came out in early July there was some discussion on whether Barclays’ intent was to match the inverse of the percentage moves of the VXX, or to act more like a true VXX short (with management fees of course).  From the chart below you can see that the actual performance matches true short performance the best (especially in early August), but surprisingly the two different approaches have both tracked the inverse VXX well.

XXV booked its first million share day on its 15th day of trading—August 6th, and average volumes have been running over 400k.  You have to imagine that Barcalys is happy with this new product.

 

XXV actual performance vs theoretical percent move or true short, click to enlarge

 

Testing the bottom 2010 trendline

 
Thursday, August 26th, 2010 | Vance Harwood
 

The closing  value of SPY is within about a dollar of the 2010 bottom trendline in the chart below.  There is lots of talk about a double dip recession, but I’m betting on a bounce.

 

SPY 2003/2004 vs SPY 2009/2010, click to enlarge

 

 

Are we at the bottom yet?

 
Wednesday, August 25th, 2010 | Vance Harwood
 

After several sell-off days with low volume, the buyers seem to be coming back.  I bought SPY at 105.22, sold 27-Aug 106 calls at 0.58. Breakeven is 104.64. Maximum profit is $1.36 per share.

Livevol shows the 27-Aug 106 IV’s at 28 and the 18-Sept monthly IV for the 106 calls at 24.  Right now, Livevol’s IV numbers are the only ones I believe for the CBOE Weeklys options.

XXV Prospectus

 
Monday, January 10th, 2011 | Vance Harwood
 

Update: I do not believe XXV is a good way to short VXX, or volatility in general.  It has very little upside remaining (maximum value will be $40/share),  see this post for more details.

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XXV Prospectus:   XXV:  Barclays Inverse VolatilityETNs

Usually getting the prospectus for a new ETF or ETN takes a Google search and a couple minutes of browsing.  The prospectus for Barclays’ new XXV inverse volatility ETN proved to be a much more elusive search—it didn’t show up in the top 20 hits.   Reading through the fine print of the XXV Fact Sheet provided this pointer for web access:

Before you invest, you should read the prospectus, prospectus supplement, pricing supplement and other documents Barclays Bank PLC has filed with the SEC for more complete information about Barclays Bank PLC and this offering. You may get these documents for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC website at www.sec.gov.

Even finding the prospectus on EDGAR proved to be frustrating.  My search in Edgar’s company search for  ”Barclays Bank PLC”  resulted in a  lot of hits, but 20 minutes of clicking did not yield anything XXV related.    I finally did an  EDGAR text advanced search with XXV as the text and Barclays Bank PLC as the company to find the XXV prospectus and a few other related documents.

I have only started to dig through this 66 page document, but so far the most interesting aspect of XXV is its “Automatic Termination Event”—which liquidates your position if the intraday indicative note drops to $10 or less.   I don’t know of any other ETN or ETF that includes a built in stop loss order like this.   XXV is effectively a short of VXX, and as investment writers are fond of reminding us, a short position can theoretically result in “infinite” losses.  The people at Barclays have decided to block the infinite losses scenario  by limiting an investor’s potential maximum loss to be whatever they invested minus around $10 per share.

Somewhat sobering, the prospectus finishes the section on Automatic Termination Event with:  ”If the historical frequency of precipitous increases in market volatility persists, it is highly likely that an automatic termination event will occur”.

This is probably not an investment that you want to buy and hold…

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Prospectuses for a couple of other volatility based products:

CVOL’s pricing supplement / prospectus

XVIX E-Tracks Long-Short  prospectus

Trading puts in an IRA account

 
Friday, August 20th, 2010 | Vance Harwood
 

Most IRAs will allow buying puts (assuming you get the appropriate approvals), even if you don’t own the underlying in the account.     This opens up the field for speculative uses of options, in addition to the buttoned-down protective put strategies.

Recently I had deep in the money puts and OTM covered calls on SPY in my IRA account.   As expiration approached I begin to wonder what would happen if I didn’t sell my puts.  If the options were cash settled, like VIX index options, then there would be no question,  the value of the puts at expiration would just be credited to my account.   But since SPY options are physically settled you would normally expect an expiring  ITM put to trigger a short sale of the underlying at the equivalent of the strike price.   Except in an IRA account you can’t sell short.

I spoke with someone at the Fidelity active trader helpdesk, and they said that if you didn’t have the appropriate amount of underlying in your account at assignment, then they would indeed create a short position in your IRA account.   The next step (and I got the feeling there was a pretty short fuse on this) would be to contact you and ask/tell you to close out the short position.   If they aren’t able to contact you , then they would cover the short position by buying the underlying in your account.   Between the time of the assignment and the cover you would be exposed to the market moves of the underlying.    Through this scenario I don’t see how a “free riding” violation could occur, but with long ITM calls I think there is some potential to trigger a violation.

In my situation, my long position in the underlying would cancel out the short sale, so I could let the puts expire, gather the last of the premium on the puts  (my short calls were so far out of the money there was no chance they would be exercised), and comfortably reside in cash over the weekend.

Otherwise, if you aren’t going to be long the underlying at assignment, it looks like a good idea to sell those ITM puts before they expire.

Two summers of doing nothing

 
Tuesday, August 17th, 2010 | Vance Harwood
 

Labor day is only a few weeks away, and it is looking like the summers of 2004 and 2010 will both end up flat for SPY.    Three observations:

  • Last week’s move above 113 was interesting, it was close to bouncing off the 2004 top trendline,  perhaps we will finally see some sort of recognizable pattern to the market tops in 2010.
  • Squinting at the 2004 chart, it appears that six years ago in August the market switched from its sideways mode into the sustained uptrend that lasted until 2007, but the double dip fears of that recession were probably not vanquished until November 2004.
  • While the 2004 and 2010 values of SPY continue their slow dance of cross-overs, the volatility of 2010 measured by the VIX is running at least 50% higher.   Is this just lingering fears from the great recession, or does it mark a structure shift in the market?
SPY 2004 vs 2010,  click to enlarge

SPY 2004 vs 2010, click to enlarge

SPY covered call with protective puts

 
Wednesday, August 3rd, 2011 | Vance Harwood
 

The biggest downside of covered calls is their lack of downside protection on the underlying.   A big, but not unusually big correction can wipe out many months worth of profits.   One strategy for reducing this exposure is to buy puts, but when I have looked into this strategy in the past the puts were either so expensive they ate up all the profits, or they were so far out of the money that they didn’t offer much protection.   I have found that the best way to really appreciate the strengths and weaknesses of a strategy is to have money at stake, so I started to look for a good situation to do some hedging on a covered call position.

Last Monday, August 9th I felt there was a higher than normal risk of a market pullback,  but there was still the opportunity for making some good profits on the weekly options. Some downside protection seemed like a good idea, and the OTM 111 puts were attractively priced at 0.35.    Late on the 9th  I bought  SPY at 113.01, sold-to-open 13-Aug 113 calls at 0.90, and bought  13-Aug 111 puts 0.35.   Maximum profit on this trade was 0.55 per share, and worst case loss was  1.46.   I had given up 39% of the profit to decrease the downside risk from essentially the entire value of the underlying to 1.46 per share.   Since there was only 4 days left on this trade the remaining  0.48% profit potential was still attractive.

The market dropped off sharply on the 10th.  In cases like this I will often buy back the calls.   If  I think the market is going to keep going down I’ll then sell ATM calls to harvest more premium, or if I think there will be a bounce back  I’ll wait to re-sell the calls, hoping to sell them again at a higher price than I just bought them back at.   In this case I bought back the 13-Aug 113 calls at .53, and later in the day resold them for .79 when the market did rebound a bit.

Wednesday the market really blew off.  I bought back my 13-Aug 113 calls at  0.12 and quickly sold 13-Aug 111 calls at 0.61 which I bought back later in day for 0.39.

Thursday I sold 13-Aug 110 calls at 0.22 and bought them back later at 0.13

Friday I closed out the position early because I was not going to be able to monitor the position the rest of the day, selling the SPY at 108.61 (down 4.40 per share)  and selling the 13-Aug 111 puts at 2.22 (up 1.87 per share)– I left about 0.2 on the table with the puts because I didn’t wait until near close to sell them.

In spite of all my call maneuvererings (which were all profitable)  I was still down 1.18 per share, compared to the worst case loss of 1.46 from just holding the position.   If I had not purchased  the puts I would have been down 3.5 per share,  almost triple the loss I ended up with.

Betting that fear will fade

 
Wednesday, August 25th, 2010 | Vance Harwood
 

Made my first trade in XXV yesterday, buying at 23.07.    During corrections, like the one we are in right now, the VIX index tends to spike up pretty early, a day or two in.   Later, even when the market drops are larger, the VIX does not seem to match the earlier highs–unless of course the market moves into a more panicky phase.

Six hours to go

 
Monday, August 9th, 2010 | Vance Harwood
 

Update

Well, I was clearly wrong about people not being in panicky mood.   Around 10:30 EST the market decided to take another leg down and the VIX did spike up quite a bit.   Later in the day the market rallied back to around the point I created this position.    I bailed out of my position less than an hour after I created it, before the leg down,  because I didn’t like the way the market was acting. Took a net profit of 0.26 per share and was glad to have it when the market tanked a few minutes later.

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This morning’s job report, while worse than predicted, was hardly evidence for Armageddon so I think the early market blow off is probably most of the action for the day.  The relatively small blip in VIX confirms that people are not in a panicky mood–besides, who wants to panic on an August Friday?

I like creating covered call positions when the underlying is right at the strike price.  The ATM calls have their maximum premium at that point, an underlying move in either direction decreases the premium.   I bought SPY at 112.01 and sold 112 strike calls (weekly options expiring today) at 0.50.   Break even is 111.51, and the best case profit is 0.49  (.43%).

The gamma certainly is high on expiration day.  SPY is now at 112.45 and the 112 option premium is down to 0.20.

Two days to go

 
Thursday, August 5th, 2010 | Vance Harwood
 

I’ve been staying out of the market (except for USO), because I think the possibility of a pullback is fairly high.    However, with two days to go on the SPY Weekly 6-August options (which are showing IVs in the 30s)  things started looking attractive.   I created an ITM covered call position, buying SPY at 112.45 and selling 111 strike calls at 1.84.   I did sequential orders, with the SPY buy being a market order, and then a limit order to sell the calls.    SPY did a nice little up move after I bought the stock, I was going to put in an order at 1.74, but after a few minutes I was able to get a fill at 1.84.  Break even on this position is  SPY at 110.61, best case profit is 0.39 per share (0.35%) which will occur if SPY closes at 111 or above tomorrow.