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Bearish on treasuries

 
Tuesday, November 30th, 2010 | Vance Harwood
 

I created a bear spread on IEF,  using a $0.50 credit  combo order to sell Dec 98 calls and buy Dec 101 calls.  The order filled at 0.57 and 0.07 respectively.   The straight market quote at the time for the spread was $0.40 (0.50 bid on the 98s and 0.1 ask on the 101s).

GM stock options are now available

 
Tuesday, November 30th, 2010 | Vance Harwood
 

Options on the “new” GM are now available.    Created a bear spread, selling Dec 34′s at 0.75 and buying Dec 36s at 0.20 for a net credit of 0.55.    GM is currently at 33.60.

XVZ Backtest from March 2004

 
Friday, April 6th, 2012 | Vance Harwood
 

I have now backtested Barclays’ XVZ ETN back to when VIX volatility futures first started to trade in March 2004.  I have made two versions of the spreadsheet available for purchase below.  One with results data only and the other version with formulas and required indexes included.  I have included the simulated daily closing values with and without the 0.95% annual fee from March 29, 2004 until February 29th, 2012.  The results of the simulated values compared to actual values are shown in the chart below.  My results match the published SPDVIXTR underlying index within 0.001%.

XVZ backtest, click to enlarge

 

XVZ looks like a very good way to hedge your portfolios for market corrections / crashes.   For details on how to do this see:

For a detailed analysis of the inner workings of XVZ see Under the Hood of Barclays’ XVZ

For more information on the spreadsheet see this readme.

My thanks to Omar Qureshi for finding the defect in my spreadsheet that had blocked me for days.

If you purchase the spreadsheet  you will be eventually be directed to paypal where you can pay via your paypal account or a credit card. When you successfully complete the paypal portion you will be shown a “Return to Six Figure Investing” link.    Click on this link to reach the page where can download the spreadsheet.  Please email me at vh2solutions@gmail.com if you have a problem, question, or request.

If you don’t see the purchase information below click on this link.

 

How to short VXX—the hard way and the easy way

 
Tuesday, August 9th, 2011 | Vance Harwood
 

Easy way:

If you want to short VXX the simplest way is to buy XIV, VelocityShares’s Daily inverse VIX Short-term ETN.   This fund attempts to track the inverse of the daily percentage moves of VXX so it isn’t a true short, but it has the same goal—going up when VXX goes down.     It carries a 1.35% annual investment fee (assessed at the rate of 0.021% per day), which I doubt is an issue for you if you’re thinking of  shorting VXX.   Buying XIV does not require you have a margin account (which is required to short any securities), so you can make this trade in ordinary cash accounts or IRAs.  For more on XIV see here.

I do not think Barclays’ XXV is a good solution for shorting the VXX.  It is intended as a short of a VXX position, but one that has already delivered most of the available profit.  XVV’s upside from now on is severely limited.  See this post for more information.

Hard way:

If you want to sell VXX short directly you need at least three things:  a broker that has shares of VXX available to short, a margin account, and assets (cash, securities) that you can deposit in your margin account.

Availability to short might be a common problem—I know it is with my Schwab account.  In spite of VXX’s high volumes, which average in the 8 million per day range, Schwab almost always shows VXX as “HTB”—Hard To Borrow.  The fine print on Schwab’s HTB suggests that if you want to pay some extra money they might be able to obtain some stock to short, but I have never pursued that course.  The Short Squeeze.com site shows VXX currently at 15 million shares short (20% of the 74 millions shares outstanding) which suggests VXX shouldn’t be all that hard to borrow.  SPY for example has a short interest of 254 millions shares short (37% of the 674 million outstanding) and is always available to short at Schwab.  My guess is that a little shopping around would yield a broker that would be happy to facilitate your short sale.

In a regular cash account setting up a margin account usually just involves a small amount of paperwork.  You typically don’t incur any additional fees or interest unless you create margin debt (e.g., borrow money to buy some stock).     If you are shorting a stock or an ETN the initial transaction deposits money into your margin account.   You’ve sold a security; the fact that you didn’t own it in the first place is just a detail.  However you don’t earn (or pay)  interest on that money, and if the security goes ex-dividend while you are still short on it, you are on the hook for the dividend.

Any margin account will require some assets be present in the account to serve as margin.  The initial amount of margin you need to put up for a short sale varies with the security, so you will need to investigate further, but if it is 50%, a typical number, you will need to have assets worth at least 50% of your initial short sale deposited in your margin account before you can do the sale.    If your trade goes significantly against you and your asset to short position ratio drops below a certain threshold—typically 30%, you will get a margin call.   At this point you will either need to put up more assets or liquidate enough of your position to bring your asset to debt value back into line.  This is not fun.

If you want to sell short in an IRA you are out of luck with a mainstream broker.   All major stockbrokers that I am aware of do not allow margin accounts in IRAs, and you need a margin account to sell short.   It’s not that they are being unreasonable.  Since IRAs have major restrictions on how much can be contributed in a year it is hard to imagine how something like a margin call could be accommodated.

If you are interested in other ways of going short on the VIX index this post has more information.

Get weekly updates on the Weeklys

 
Tuesday, November 23rd, 2010 | Vance Harwood
 

The CBOE has announced a nice new email service for people wanted to know what weekly options are going to be offered each week.  While the list has been relatively stable the CBOE recently extended the list to 35 offerings and they usually make a few tweaks each week.   For example, they recently dropped USO in favor of NDX—something I’m not happy about.

They plan to send out an email, typically on Wednesday, listing the options they plan to list starting on Thursday.   To sign up use this link and look for the Weeklys option selection near the bottom of their list of available newsletters.   If you already have a CBOE login you can add this email update here.

Click here for more information on weekly options.

CVOL—the new volatility kid on the block

 
Saturday, January 15th, 2011 | Vance Harwood
 

Last week was the first week of trading for Citigroup’s new volatility product: CVOL.   Its stated goal is to “produce returns that are correlated to the CBOE Volatility Index (the “VIX Index”). ”   So far no one has figured out a way to offer a direct investment in the VIX Index, so volatility traders must be content with proxies.

CVOL’s established competitor, Barclays’ VXX also tries to correlate with the VIX, but consistently fails, both in magnitude and its steady erosion in value due to contango.   In order to avoid some of VXX’s weaknesses CVOL uses longer dated volatility futures (third and forth month instead of first and second), adds a short position in the S&P500, and uses leverage.   This witches brew is spelled out with equations in Citigroup’s CVOL pricing supplement / prospectus, but I don’t know if I will ever have enough motivation / coffee to drag myself through those.

In any event, the proof is in the pudding, so below are the percentage results for CVOL compared to VXX and VIX, using its first day of trading, November 15th as the basis.   Very few shares of CVOL were traded during the week so regular stock charts are mostly useless.   I captured four snapshots of  the market during the week, plus I took the actual trade values of some of the CVOL trades and used their timestamps to lookup the corresponding VXX and VIX values.   The bid / ask spread of CVOL ranged from around .53 to 1.10 during my snapshots.  I used a value halfway between the bid/asked for the chart below.

 

CVOL vs VXX and VIX, click to enlarge

 

Last week was a good test case, because there was a lot of volatility in volatility.  The VIX popped over +17% on Tuesday and CVOL delivered a very respectable +15% value, while VXX demonstrated its usual lethargic behavior with an 8% jump.   The last two data points were on Friday, and show CVOL out performing the VIX—something I wonder if VXX has ever done.   On Monday we will see if this performance was due to the typical Friday sag in VIX (due to option traders compensating for time decay during the weekend), or over-leverage in the CVOL machinery.

VXX has proved to be an abysmal long term performer (down 89% since inception), so the only believable reason for its multi-million share daily volume is traders trying to speculate on / hedge short term volatility and the associated market declines.

The early returns suggest that CVOL will be a better choice.

One of these correlations is going to fail

 
Wednesday, November 17th, 2010 | Vance Harwood
 

Since November 2009 I have been commenting on the eerie day to day correlation between the market (specifically SPY)  of 2003/2004 and 2009/2010.    These charts continue to track with November 16th’s closing value of SPY (118.16) differing only 0.28 points from SPY’s closing (117.88) on November 16th, 2004—six years ago.

 

SPY 2003/2004 vs SPY 2009/2010, click to enlarge

 

 

Recently I noticed another correction with the past—the market rally beginning in February 2010, versus the current rally that started in August.  Today’s closing is within 0.32 points of the April 27th close (118.48)—55 trading days into the twin rallies.

 

 

 

 

Twin rallies Feb and Aug 2010, click to enlarge

 

Soon one of these correlations is going to break.   In 2004 the market went into a sustained rally starting in November.  In May 2010 the February rally stumbled, with the aid of the Flash Crash into a significant correction.

My guess is that the market is going to be going down for a while…

 

 

 

Monthly ETF Dividend Amounts

 
Monday, February 13th, 2012 | Vance Harwood
 

Tickers covered:  AGG, BIL, SCJ, HYG, IEF, INY, JNK, LAG, LQD, MUB, PFF, TIP, TLT

For dividend history data and charts from 2005 on click here.

You can use the search window within the post (upper right) to search for a specific ticker, or increase the number of entries to show in the upper right box to 25 in order to see all the symbols.

SYMBOL--DESCRIPTIONJune Ex-DividendJune Distribution
AGGAGG iShares Barclays Aggregate Bond Fund1-Jun-127-Jun-12
BILBIL SPDR Barclays Capital 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF1-Jun-1211-Jun-12
CSJCSJ iShares Barclays 1-3 Year Credit Bond Fund1-Jun-127-Jun-12
HYGHYG iShares High Yield Corporate Bond Fund1-Jun-127-Jun-12
IEFIEF iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund1-Jun-127-Jun-12
INYINY SPDR Barclays Capital New York Municipal Bond1-Jun-1211-Jun-12
JNKSPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond1-Jun-1211-Jun-12
LAGLAG SPDR Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond1-Jun-1211-Jun-12
LQDiShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond1-Jun-127-Jun-12
MUBiShares S&P National AMT-Free Municipal Bond Fund1-Jun-127-Jun-12
PFFPFF iShares S&P U.S. Preferred Stock Index1-Jun-127-Jun-12
TIPiShares Barclays TIPS Bond1-Jun-127-Jun-12
TLTiShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond1-Jun-127-Jun-12

 

For more ETF ex-dividend and pay dates see this post.