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IEF + DTYS: A low risk hedge with dividends?

 
Thursday, March 31st, 2011 | Vance Harwood
 

I continue to evaluate (and invest in) a hedge position created by going long both IEF, Barclays 7  to 10 year treasury ETF and DTYS, Barclays’ iPath® US Treasury 10-year Bear ETN. The net position, holding equal shares of both securities should yield around 1.7% annually, and since I’m willing to bet that interest rates won’t be going down anytime soon I’m boosting the overall yield by about another 3% by writing calls on my IEF position. For more information on this hedge see this post. This hedge seemed to perform well during the recent correction. When IEF climbs quickly DTYS lagged, but it eventually caught up.

IEF is going ex-dividend this Friday, 1-April, so I thought I would take another look at the historical data to see if there was anything noticeable related to the IEF ex-dividend date.

IEF + DTYS hedge, click to enlarge

The yellow triangles mark IEF’s ex-dividend dates. Visually there doesn’t seem to be any significant impact on the hedge.

You might wonder if the IEF + DTYS combination is all that great a hedge reviewing this first chart. The next chart provides a better perspective by showing the normalized individual performance of IEF and DTYS. The standard deviation on IEF and and DTYS is about 3% and 6.5% of their average values respectively (coefficient of variance). The equivalent number for the IEF + DTYS hedge is 0.5%.  The second graph provides a visual representation.

IEF + DTYS with normalized IEF and DTYS, click to enlarge

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IWM and other quarterly iShare Russell ETFs go ex-dividend

 
Friday, September 23rd, 2011 | Vance Harwood
 

iShares’ Russell 2000 Value Index Fund, IWM went ex-dividend Friday, September 23rd with a payout of $0.2498 per share. The distribution date is September 29th. See this post for IWM’s dividend history over the last five years. For the remaining ex-dividend and distribution dates for 2011 see this post.

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Mimicking the VIX index

 
Tuesday, March 22nd, 2011 | Vance Harwood
 

The Holy Grail of volatility investing would be an ETN or ETF that matched the movements of VIX—CBOE’s volatility index on the S&P 500.   As a hedging vehicle it would be nearly ideal—negatively correlated to fast moves of the S&P 500 with a stable floor during quiet times.  So far no one has figured how to economically offer a fund that does this.  Instead we have a potpourri of choices that sort-of  behave like the VIX  (see volatility tickers for the complete list).

TVIX and CVOL are the two funds that have come closest to following the VIX in volatile times.   They are both 2X leveraged versions of short term volatility futures, but CVOL includes a short component in the S&P 500 intended to better match the VIX in volatile times.   In the last 10 days these two funds have done a very good job of matching the percentage moves of the VIX.

CVOL and TVIX perform in volatile times, click to enlarge

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The next chart, the 3 month story, shows the dark side of these two funds—a relentless undertow from the contango of volatility futures that makes buy—and—hold a suicide strategy with TVIX and CVOL.

VIX compared to TVIX and CVOL, click to enlarge

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Ugly.  This last chart shows the target—VIX over the last 3 years.   Mimic this and fortune will come to your door.

Three years of VIX, click to enlarge

Dividend history for IWM

 
Wednesday, December 28th, 2011 | Vance Harwood
 

For ex-dividend and pay dates for IWM see this post.

If you would like the dividend history for another security, see this post.

 

SPY and other SPDR ETFs ex-dividend

 
Tuesday, September 6th, 2011 | Vance Harwood
 

For updated information about SPY, IVV, and VOO’s dividend see this post.

See here for my list / dates for iShare S&P related funds and here for the Russell related funds.

Vanguard treats their ex-dividend dates like state secrets.   See here for my estimates on Vanguard ETF ex-dividend and pay dates.

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Hedging 7-10 year Treasure bonds with Barclays’ DTYS

 
Wednesday, March 30th, 2011 | Vance Harwood
 

This morning I took the plunge, buying equal amounts of IEF (93.10) and DTYS (52.95) this morning, with the goal of getting a low risk return of 1.7% annualized return or better.   Before I bought I was surprised / dismayed to see that DTYS had fallen more per share than IEF had risen—casting doubt on my planned 1:1 hedging ratio.   I looked back at the historical data and satisfied myself that this is typical, the day to day tracking of IEF to DTYS isn’t all that great, but it averages out over to be a good hedge over the course of a week or two.

Because I don’t expect interest rates to drop significantly I sweetened the yield by selling April S94 IEF calls for 0.45.   Sum of IEF+DTYS price was 146.05.

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Major bear insurance for a XIV position

 
Monday, March 7th, 2011 | Vance Harwood
 

I have been loading up heavily in XIV during this correction.   I certainly haven’t been bored, watching big gains one day go away the next, but the contango associated with VXX is currently structural—so as long as that situation continues XIV, which is short contango, will be a long term winner.

If this correction turns out to be more than the minor setbacks we’ve seen recently, or the beginning of a bear phase of the market, it might be a while before my XIV positions will be profitable again.   I can console myself with the knowledge that my overall portfolio will not suffer much, but it would be nice to have something to kick in if the market really tanks.

Two ideas:

  • VIX OTM back spread in a one short lower strike call and two long higher strike calls ratio.  Cheap or free if the spread is big enough.  Would pay off well in a full fledged panic
  • Set a VIX threshold that if breached would trigger buying something that tracks the VIX reasonably well—like TVIX.  The goal would be to capture the front end “panic phase” of the correction, and exit once the VIX started its mean reverting relaxation.

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