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Betting on fear to fade

 
Tuesday, May 18th, 2010 | Vance Harwood
 

Bought VIX June  puts at 4.6,  the VIX index was around 31 at the time.   Barring another bear market I think we will see the VIX pull back from the recent spikes.

For related posts see:

Options symbols transition completed

 
Monday, May 17th, 2010 | Vance Harwood
 

This last weekend the option symbol transition coordinated by The Options Clearing Corporation completed, with the last set of symbols, starting with underlying symbols of  S through Z, switched over to the new system.   In almost all cases the 3 to 5  letter underlying symbol now works as the option identifier.    I think the new system is a real improvement.   I wish all the brokers had implemented it the some way, but I guess that would be too much to ask.  Click here to see the Schwab, Fidelity, and the generic approaches.

Lots of premium available on SPY options

 
Thursday, May 13th, 2010 | Vance Harwood
 

There is a lot of premium available on SPY options that will expire at the end of next week due to the recent market gyrations.   I created a covered call, buying SPY at 117.26, selling-to-open May 117 calls at 1.69 for a net investment of 115.57.   The Theta (time decay) on these options is $8 per day.

Doubling up on Oil, betting on VIX dropping

 
Monday, March 12th, 2012 | Vance Harwood
 

Did covered calls on Oil — bought USO at 37.19, sold-to-open May 37 calls at 1.02 for a net investment of 36.18.

Created a bear spread on VIX options today.   Betting on VIX going down is forecasting that the market in general will be flat or positive.  I sold-to-open June VIX 16 calls at 10.26, bought  June  VIX 32.5 calls at 1.88 for a net credit of  8.38.  I was able to approximately split the bid/ask prices with my combo order.   At the time of the order the spreads were approximately 10.00 / 10.60 on the June 16 options and 1.80/1.95 on the June 32.5 calls.  Going with the published bid/ask prices leaves money on the table.

The VIX cash index was around 28.5 at the time my order filled.   I initially tried to go short on VXX, but Schwab had VXX in the “hard to borrow” category this morning.   I suspect lots of people were trying to short the VXX today.   I went with June options rather than May because there are only 7 days left on the May VIX options–I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see one more down leg in this correction.    I expect the June options will move much down much slower than the VIX index as the market moves away from fear mode.

Going short on VIX?

 
Friday, March 9th, 2012 | Vance Harwood
 
Unlike the S&P 500 or Dow Jones Index there is no way to directly invest in the VIX index.  I’m sure some really smart people have tried to figure out how to go long or short on this computed volatility index, but currently there’s just no way to do it directly.  Instead, you have to invest in a security that attempts to track VIX.  None of them do a great job of this.   I’ve given a short answer and a long answer below on how to best short the VIX given the current choices.  Take your pick.
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Short Answer
  • To go short on VIX buy XIV
    • XIV attempts the opposite percentage moves of VXX.  Since VXX only manages about 50% of the VIX’s percentage moves you should expect XIV to have a similar behavior.  For more on XIV see this post.

Long Answer

Read More

Bull Spread — SPY at 121.0

 
Friday, April 23rd, 2010 | Vance Harwood
 

One alternative to a covered call is a bull spread.  You give up some premium in exchange for significantly reducing your downside risk.  I bought SPY 118 May calls at 3.91 and sold 121 May calls at 1.82 for a net debit of 2.09.  SPY was right at 121 at the time, so the the 121 calls were right at the money–which is the  maximum premium point (the 120 and 122 calls had about .45 less premium).  Maximum profit on this trade is 0.91,   maximum loss is the debit amount — 2.09.

Dividend capture with covered calls—too hot, too cold, or just right!

 
Wednesday, December 7th, 2011 | Vance Harwood
 

If you have general questions about dividends see Top 10 questions about dividends.

One strategy for capturing dividends is to buy the stock/ETF and then sell calls against that security as a hedge—a covered call.  The value of the short calls moves in the opposite direction of the stock/ETF, providing a hedge.   There are three major variables with this strategy:

1. How many days before the ex-dividend date do you put the position in place?
2. What strike price do you select for the options?

3. How many days until the options expire?

Your risk profile, playing with these variables, can be generalized into the three situations below:

Too cold (too low a risk)    Calls too deep in the money
  • If you sell deep in the money (ITM) options you may feel you’ve found the golden goose.  The calls provide a great hedge, virtually eliminating risk from your position.   Unfortunately, your calls will almost certainly be assigned the evening before the ex-dividend day.  The owners of the calls are not about to let you get away with collecting dividends with such low risk, so they exercise the option you sold them.  They call away your stock and they collect the dividend.  Your position is closed out—no dividend for you.  The only profit you might have is from any premium present when you created the position (if your net investment was less than the strike price).   Some people use this strategy hoping that their options will not be assigned, and not all are, but in my experience the percentage not assigned is very low.

Too hot  (too much risk)    Calls without enough hedge value,  calls that don’t expire for a long time

  • If you sell options that have a strike price that is at or above the current market price of the stock/ETF you can collect a significant premium, and signficantly lower the risk of having your stock assigned.  However, since the value of the options is relatively small (perhaps .5% of the value of the stock) you don’t have much downside protection.   A few bad days on the market can wipe out a year’s worth of dividend capture profits.
  • Not having your stock assigned is good from a dividend collection standpoint, but it is bad if your options have weeks until they expire.  If your calls have a while to run you will see the premium on your unassigned options increase by about the amount of the dividend on the ex-dividend day.   Since you are short these calls your net profit on ex-dividend day will be about zero.   Until the premium on the option decays away, ultimately going to zero at expiration, your position is usually not profitable.   While you wait for the premium on the call to decay you are exposed to market risk—this can be very unpleasant.
  • Just right
    • What I have found to be a good combination is:
      • Find stocks/ETFs where the options will expire within 10 business days of the ex-dividend date
      • Create the covered call position about a week before the ex-dividend date
      • Choose a strike price that gives you a premium about equal to the dividend value.
    • This recipe will usually result in a covered call position that will be assigned on the evening before the ex-dividend date.  You typically don’t collect the dividend, but since the option is closed out you keep the option premium which is roughly equal to the dividend amount.
    • The calls will provide a decent hedge against risk.  Not enough to protect against a major market move, but they do provide significant protection
    • If the stock/ETF value goes down after you put the covered call in place then the chances of call assignment decrease—bettering your chances of collecting the dividend.  If you do collect the dividend  the breakeven point on your position is improved, and your maximum profit potential goes up by the dividend amount.
    • If the bid / ask spreads on the stocks / options are significant you will probably need to use a combo order to get a decent profit potential.
    • While ok in flat or rising market—this position will not hedge a serious bear move—be prepared to bail out if the market goes seriously south

    Related posts

    Betting that the rally will last the week

     
    Tuesday, April 13th, 2010 | Vance Harwood
     

    Did covered calls on SPY,  buying SPY at 119.70,  selling to open April 119 Calls at 1.11.   Net investment/ breakeven is 118.59.   Ended up doing sequential market orders because combo order execution was not working well at Schwab.  Has the feel that actual humans are involved in the process–not a good thing with a moving market.

    Understanding covered calls—an analogy

     
    Wednesday, April 14th, 2010 | Vance Harwood
     

    I know that analogies usually confuse more than they help—but that’s not going to stop me from trying…

    Imagine that you are the season ticket holder of 4 good seats for a major league football team at the beginning of the season. A lot of people think the team is headed for the Superbowl, but you are pessimistic. You’d like to cash in on the current hype and get some money now for the last home game of the season. On craigslist you offer to sell the rights to this game. Your offer doesn’t force the buyer to buy the tickets, but gives the buyer the right to buy the tickets from you at face value any time before the game.

    If your team is undefeated 4 games into the season the value of your offer will go up. If the last game of the season determines whether the team goes to the playoffs or not your offer could become quite valuable–essentially the difference between what the scalpers are charging for comparable tickets and the face price of the tickets.

    On the other hand, if your team is near elimination from the playoffs halfway through the season your offer will be almost worthless—who would pay money for the right to buy tickets at face value that will probably be cheap on the street? If the last game of the season ends up being a meaningless contest between two loser teams you will probably have to sell your tickets at a discount if you don’t want to go yourself.

    Your offer on Craig’s list has similar characteristics to selling stock options on stock you own—a covered call. You give up the upside on an asset you own in exchange for money upfront. No laws of nature have been broken—relax…

    Will the rally last?

     
    Monday, April 12th, 2010 | Vance Harwood
     

    Did a covered call on SPY using a combo order.   Bought SPY at 119.83, sold-to-open  April 120 calls at $0.70 for a net investment of 119.13.