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IEF + DTYS: A low risk hedge with dividends?

 
Thursday, March 31st, 2011 | Vance Harwood
 

I continue to evaluate (and invest in) a hedge position created by going long both IEF, Barclays 7  to 10 year treasury ETF and DTYS, Barclays’ iPath® US Treasury 10-year Bear ETN. The net position, holding equal shares of both securities should yield around 1.7% annually, and since I’m willing to bet that interest rates won’t be going down anytime soon I’m boosting the overall yield by about another 3% by writing calls on my IEF position. For more information on this hedge see this post. This hedge seemed to perform well during the recent correction. When IEF climbs quickly DTYS lagged, but it eventually caught up.

IEF is going ex-dividend this Friday, 1-April, so I thought I would take another look at the historical data to see if there was anything noticeable related to the IEF ex-dividend date.

IEF + DTYS hedge, click to enlarge

The yellow triangles mark IEF’s ex-dividend dates. Visually there doesn’t seem to be any significant impact on the hedge.

You might wonder if the IEF + DTYS combination is all that great a hedge reviewing this first chart. The next chart provides a better perspective by showing the normalized individual performance of IEF and DTYS. The standard deviation on IEF and and DTYS is about 3% and 6.5% of their average values respectively (coefficient of variance). The equivalent number for the IEF + DTYS hedge is 0.5%.  The second graph provides a visual representation.

IEF + DTYS with normalized IEF and DTYS, click to enlarge

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IWM and other quarterly iShare Russell ETFs go ex-dividend

 
Friday, September 23rd, 2011 | Vance Harwood
 

iShares’ Russell 2000 Value Index Fund, IWM went ex-dividend Friday, September 23rd with a payout of $0.2498 per share. The distribution date is September 29th. See this post for IWM’s dividend history over the last five years. For the remaining ex-dividend and distribution dates for 2011 see this post.

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Mimicking the VIX index

 
Tuesday, March 22nd, 2011 | Vance Harwood
 

The Holy Grail of volatility investing would be an ETN or ETF that matched the movements of VIX—CBOE’s volatility index on the S&P 500.   As a hedging vehicle it would be nearly ideal—negatively correlated to fast moves of the S&P 500 with a stable floor during quiet times.  So far no one has figured how to economically offer a fund that does this.  Instead we have a potpourri of choices that sort-of  behave like the VIX  (see volatility tickers for the complete list).

TVIX and CVOL are the two funds that have come closest to following the VIX in volatile times.   They are both 2X leveraged versions of short term volatility futures, but CVOL includes a short component in the S&P 500 intended to better match the VIX in volatile times.   In the last 10 days these two funds have done a very good job of matching the percentage moves of the VIX.

CVOL and TVIX perform in volatile times, click to enlarge

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The next chart, the 3 month story, shows the dark side of these two funds—a relentless undertow from the contango of volatility futures that makes buy—and—hold a suicide strategy with TVIX and CVOL.

VIX compared to TVIX and CVOL, click to enlarge

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Ugly.  This last chart shows the target—VIX over the last 3 years.   Mimic this and fortune will come to your door.

Three years of VIX, click to enlarge

Dividend history for IWM

 
Wednesday, December 28th, 2011 | Vance Harwood
 

For ex-dividend and pay dates for IWM see this post.

If you would like the dividend history for another security, see this post.

 

SPY and other SPDR ETFs ex-dividend

 
Tuesday, September 6th, 2011 | Vance Harwood
 

For updated information about SPY, IVV, and VOO’s dividend see this post.

See here for my list / dates for iShare S&P related funds and here for the Russell related funds.

Vanguard treats their ex-dividend dates like state secrets.   See here for my estimates on Vanguard ETF ex-dividend and pay dates.

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Major bear insurance for a XIV position

 
Monday, March 7th, 2011 | Vance Harwood
 

I have been loading up heavily in XIV during this correction.   I certainly haven’t been bored, watching big gains one day go away the next, but the contango associated with VXX is currently structural—so as long as that situation continues XIV, which is short contango, will be a long term winner.

If this correction turns out to be more than the minor setbacks we’ve seen recently, or the beginning of a bear phase of the market, it might be a while before my XIV positions will be profitable again.   I can console myself with the knowledge that my overall portfolio will not suffer much, but it would be nice to have something to kick in if the market really tanks.

Two ideas:

  • VIX OTM back spread in a one short lower strike call and two long higher strike calls ratio.  Cheap or free if the spread is big enough.  Would pay off well in a full fledged panic
  • Set a VIX threshold that if breached would trigger buying something that tracks the VIX reasonably well—like TVIX.  The goal would be to capture the front end “panic phase” of the correction, and exit once the VIX started its mean reverting relaxation.

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A glitchy week for the VIX

 
Monday, February 21st, 2011 | Vance Harwood
 

Last week didn’t inspire a lot of confidence in the CBOE’s Volatility index:  VIX

  • A 0.6% SPX dip, gone two hours later triggers a 3.75% step up in the VIX that didn’t go away
  • At the Thursday morning opening VIX glitches down 0.6 points and then jumps 1.3 points
  • VIX  glitches down a point Friday morning for 15 minutes, and then recovers to within 0.03 points of where it was

VIX the week of February 14th, click to enlarge

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Do these gyrations indicate something about the market, or more likely is the VIX index being jerked around by unusual SPX option trading?  For the last two movements I suspect the latter.   I’ve wondered if the SPX option market has been losing favor to other competitors (e.g., SPY or futures options).    Overall option volume on SPY looks to be about 10x higher than SPX, and the spreads are tighter, but CBOE’s data shows good growth in the SPX options.

On top of VIX’s glitchiness we have the typical Friday drop due to the weekend effect and the compensating Monday bounce.    All together we have an index that is sure to confuse the average investor.    If I was designing a competitive index,  I would use SPY options instead of SPX,  introduce a smoothing algorithm to dampen quick IV moves that aren’t reflected  across most strikes,  and add a non-trading day correction factor to at least partially null out the weekend/holiday effects.   With those changes I think you would end up with a index that better reflects true implied volatility.

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Bull run not over yet?

 
Wednesday, February 16th, 2011 | Vance Harwood
 

I created a bear spread on VXX, selling February S28 calls at .39 and buying February S29 calls at .17.   VXX was at 27.90 at the time.

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Backtesting data for volatility ETN and ETF products

 
Monday, December 5th, 2011 | Vance Harwood
 

If you want to backtest various volatility products like VXX, VXZ, XIV, CVOL, IVOP  (see volatility tickers for my complete list) I offer a set of spreadsheets that give the underlying rolling index values from March 2004.  See this post for details.

Bloomberg offers charts that go back 5 years for the related indexes.   My thanks to “~” from Volatility Futures and Options for pointing this out.

Some Bloomberg symbols:

VIX:IND VIX cash Index
SPVXSTR:IND S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index TR (End of Day)
SPVXMTR:IND S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures Index TR (End of Day)
SPXT:IND S&P 500 Total Returns index (includes dividends)
USB3MTA:IND 3 Month Treasure Bill Yield
SPVXTSER:IND XVIX index

2012 Vanguard ETF ex-dividend and distribution dates

 
Sunday, March 11th, 2012 | Vance Harwood
 

Apparently Vanguard likes to keep their ETF ex-dividend and distribution dates a secret until just a couple days before the event.  It has that old mutual fund feel to it—”we’ll give you a quote after-market and allow you to buy or sell our stuff at the end of the day, otherwise go away…”

As a result, the dates below are just guesses, based on previous year’s ex-dividend and distribution dates.   For ex-dividend and pay dates see this  Vanguard link for getting the confirmed dates.

Selected Vanguard ETF 2012 Monthly Ex-dividend & Distributions Dates:  BND, BSV, VGLT, BIV, VCSH

Ex-dividend Date 1-Feb 1-Mar 2-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 2-Jul
1-Aug 4-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 3-Dec 24-Dec
Distribution Date 7-Feb 7-Mar 9-Apr 7-May 7-Jun 9-Jul
5-Aug 7-Sep 7-Oct 7-Nov 10-Dec 31-Dec

BND Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF
BSV Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
VGLT Vanguard Long-Term Govt Bd Idx ETF
BIV Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond ETF
VCSH Vanguard Short-Term Corp Bd Idx ETF

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Selected Vanguard ETF Quarterly Ex-dividend & Distributions Dates—Group A:  VFH, VNQ, VUG, VOO

Ex-dividend Date 23-Mar-2012 22-Jun-2012 21-Sep-2012 24-Dec-2012
Distribution Date 30-Mar-2012 29-Jun-2012 28-Sep-2012 31-Dec-2012

VFH Vanguard Financials ETF
VNQ Vanguard REIT Index ETF
VUG Vanguard Growth ETF
VOO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF

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Selected Vanguard ETF Quarterly Ex-dividend & Distribution Dates—Group B: VIG, VTI, VTV, VV, VYM

Ex-dividend Date 23-Mar-2012 22-Jun-2012 21-Sep-2012 19-Dec-2012
Distribution Date 30-Mar-2012 29-Jun-2012 28-Sep-2012 26-Dec-2012

VIG Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF
VTV Vanguard Value ETF
VV Vanguard Large Cap ETF
VYM Vanguard High Dividend Yield Indx ETF

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Selected International Vanguard ETF Quarterly Ex-dividend & Distribution Dates—VWO, VGK, VEU, VSS, VNQI, VEA, VGK, VPL, VXUS, VT

Ex-dividend Date None None 21-Sep-2012 24-Dec-2012
Distribution Date None None 28-Sep-2012 31-Dec-2012

VWO Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund
VGK  Vanguard European Stock Index Fund
VEU  Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Index Fund
VSS   Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index Fund
VNQI Vanguard Global ex-U.S. Real Estate Index Fund
VEA  Vanguard MSCI EAFE Index Fund
VGK Vanguard MSCI Europe Index Fund
VPL  Vanguard Pacific Stock Index Fund
VXUS Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund
VT   Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund

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Selected Vanguard ETF Annual Ex-dividend & Distributions Dates:  VAW, VDE, VOT, VBK, VGT

Ex-dividend Date 26-Dec-2012
Distribution Date 31-Dec-2012

VAW Vanguard Materials ETF
VDE Vanguard Energy ETF
VO Vanguard Mid-Cap ETF
VOT Vanguard Mid-Cap Growth ETF
VB Vanguard Small Cap ETF
VBR Vanguard Small Cap Value ETF
VBK Vanguard Small Cap Growth ETF
VGT Vanguard Information Technology ETF

Previous Ex-Div / Dist Dates:    2010:  27-Dec-10 /31-Dec-10   2011: 23-Dec-11/ 30-Dec-11    Distribution date on last business day of year