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Predicting the future: 27-July-2010

Tuesday, July 27th, 2010

I am an engineer by training.   It is in my blood to try to engineer a investment solution that gives good upside performance while structurally limiting risk to reasonable levels (e.g., no greater than the upside opportunity).   A few years ago I concluded that I had not figured out a way to do this, and that it is probably impossible.

For example highly rated bonds, usually not considered the riskiest of investments, are sensitive to prevailing interest rates.  AGG, a bond ETF is currently yielding around 3.7% annualized interest.  Its duration, a term that defines the average time until maturity for the bonds in the fund is around 4.    The duration metric quantifies how sensitive a bond investment is to interest rate fluctuations. Read More

Dealing with risk — diversified asset allocation

Sunday, July 25th, 2010

Diversified asset allocation, the belief system that most investment advisors preach—has the “right”  mix of stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities spread out over the entire world.   This investor age dependent mix is rebalanced, typically quarterly, by reducing your investment in areas that have performed well and increasing your stake in areas that are now underweighted—presumably waiting their turn to perform.

I don’t think this is a bad strategy, but it does make the assumption that the future will be like the past (e.g., equities average around 10% growth per year over multi-decade periods, and that some assets classes like bonds and commodities tend to counterbalance trends in equities. Read More

Playing the weeklies…

Monday, July 19th, 2010

Created a covered call position today with SPY at 106.89 and 107 SPY calls expiring this Friday–the 23rd.   The calls sold (to open) at 1.18, giving a 1.2% best case profit for the week if SPY closes Friday above 107.   Fidelity supports trading these weekly options, but apparently Schwab does not.

A near miss on the 15th

Monday, July 19th, 2010

On July 15th the closing price of SPY was only $1.12 away from the July 15th, 2004 closing value of SPY.   The last crossover between the two price histories was in late May, but it wouldn’t take much of a rally to put 2010 on top again.

SPY 2010 vs 2004,  Click to enlarge

SPY 2010 vs 2004, Click to enlarge

The summer of 2010 grinds on

Thursday, July 8th, 2010

The last 3 days have provided a respite, but in general the market has not been kind to the bulls this summer. As in 2004, the 2010 bottom trendline has not proved to be a impermeable barrier–with a SPY close of 102.2 last Friday providing a convincing accent.   Six years ago the market reversed its negative summer slide starting in August–are we three weeks early this year?

SPY & VIX 2004 vs 2010, click to enlarge

SPY & VIX 2004 vs 2010, click to enlarge

Weekly options for the masses–SPY, QQQQ, IWM, DIA and others

Wednesday, July 7th, 2010

Anyone that trades options knows that the pace quickens the last few days before expiration.   The delta (the change in option price relative to the underlying)  for the ATM option is still around .5, but instead of gradual changes for the deltas on the strikes in / out of the money, the curve starts resembling a step function, going from zero for out-of-the-money, to one for in-the-money at expiration.   The time decay of the option premium (theta) also accelerates, with perhaps 50% of the decay in the last month happening in the last week of the option’s life.

Taken from http://www.option911.com/blog/option-education/how-option-time-premium-decays-over-the-weekend/, click to enlarge

Taken from http://www.option911.com/blog/option-education/how-option-time-premium-decays-over-the-weekend/, click to enlarge

All of this is of course modulated by any changes in the volatility of the underlying, and the market in general.

Some traders avoid options close to expiration because of these factors–and others flock to them.    As a covered call writer I am really attracted to the accelerated time decay of short term options.   I’m not taking any more risk than normal holding the underlying, and I am getting an accelerated decay in the price of the options I am short on.    I will often wait until there is only two or three weeks are remaining on the options to create the position.

Now it can be expiration week, every week for the following Stocks / ETFs (taken from this CBOE posting):

Weeklys on Exchange Traded Funds and equities. As of July 5, 2010, these included the following::

  • SPY – Standard & Poor’s Depositary Receipts
  • QQQQ – Nasdaq-100 Index Tracking Stock
  • IWM – iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund
  • GLD – Options on SPDR® Gold Shares
  • XLF – Financial Select Sector SPDR
  • EEM – iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index
  • C – Citigroup Inc
  • BAC – Bank of America Corp
  • AAPL – Apple Inc
  • BP – BP PLC
  • F – Ford
  • GOOG – Google Inc.

Fidelity supports trading on these new weekly options, but Schwab does not appear to.   Beware of the listed greeks on these options, the software may not be using the correct time until expiration.

The volume, at least on the SPY weeklies has been substantial (20K today on the 105’s expiring 9-July), so I think the options providers have a winner.

For more information see this options clearing house post.

2004 vs 2010 —what about the yield curve?

Sunday, June 27th, 2010

I continue to monitor the correlation between the 2004 values of SPY v.s. the 2010 version.    The summer of 2004 was a sideways, slightly declining market and the summer of 2010 seems to be following suit.    I was curious how the US treasury interest rates between the two periods compared, so I looked up some data.   The yield curves in both time frames are similar—steep.  The differential between 2 year bonds and 5 year bonds in 2004 was 1.11 percent, compared to 1.25 percent now–so that is pretty close also.  In 2003 and 2009 this differential peaked around 1.6 and has been in decline since (see below).

http://www.tradersnarrative.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/, click to enlarge

http://www.tradersnarrative.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/, click to enlarge

The updated values of SPY and VIX are shown below:

SPY 2004 vs 2010, Click to enlarge

SPY 2004 vs 2010, Click to enlarge

Schwab publishes ex-dividend / payout dates for their no-fee ETF funds

Tuesday, June 22nd, 2010

Schwab ETF  2010  Ex-Dividend and Pay date information

Schwab has now published their ex-dividend / pay dates for all of 2010 for their no-fee ETFs.  The published 2010 dates are:

Ex-Dividend:  23-Dec-09   22-Mar-10 21-Jun-10 20-Sep-10    20-Dec-10

Pay Dates:   30-Dec-09  26-Mar-10   25-Jun-10   24-Sep-10   27-Dec-10

Schwab International Equity ETF™ SCHF
Schwab U.S. Small-Cap ETF™ SCHA
Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Value ETF™ SCHV
Schwab U.S. Large–Cap Growth ETF™ SCHG
Schwab U.S. Large-Cap ETF™ SCHX
Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF™ SCHB

Schwab  posted their second quarter dividend information here.   Schwab’s distribution / pay dates are very timely — only 4 days after ex-dividend with this most recent dividend.

The  SCHX’s dividend has been similar to SPY’s percentage wise — I think SPY’s September payout will be around .55 — with SCHX currently at 26.  I’m assuming SCHX’s dividend will be around $0.13 per share.

The SCHX has 750 stocks in it, but appears to closely follow the S&P 500.

If you don’t see the ETF symbol you want there are a lot more here: Dividend, Ex-Dividend, and Paydate / Distribution Date information for ETFs

SPY dividend for 2nd quarter 2010

Friday, June 18th, 2010

SPY went ex-dividend today —18-June-2010.  The payout will be $0.53128 per share.  The paydate will be 30-July-2010.

Where is the 2010 top trendline?

Wednesday, June 16th, 2010

On the chart below you can see that using the slope of the 2004 SPY trendlines anchored on the February 2010 market bottom gave a 2010 bottom trendline that nicely predicted the bottom (or at least a pause) in the recent correction.

The big question now is the top trendline.    Of course there is nothing to say that 2004 will in anyway predict 2010, but there are macro level similarities (sideways period after a rapid run-up after a grueling  bear market, general business recovery) as well as micro level similarities (2004 and 2010 SPY prices closed less than $2 away from each other today).

On the dissimilarities ledger, volatility is running considerably higher in 2010, Eurozone troubles could plunge that area into even more severe economic difficulties–dragging the rest of the world down, and there is some evidence that ETFs are disrupting the historical tendency of some asset classes (e.g., commodities,  bonds) to behave differently than the equities market.

Given the scare of the recent correction (assuming it is over), I find it hard to believe that the market will quickly rally back into 121 territory for SPY.  On the other hand, the 2004 top trend line is only a few points away at 114–just a couple of good up days away.   I’m guessing the ceiling will be around 116 / 118 for SPY through this cycle.

SPY 2004 vs 2010, click to enlarge

SPY 2004 vs 2010, click to enlarge