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CVOL—the new volatility kid on the block

Monday, November 22nd, 2010

Last week was the first week of trading for Citigroup’s new volatility product: CVOL.   Its stated goal is to “produce returns that are correlated to the CBOE Volatility Index (the “VIX Index”). ”   So far no one has figured out a way to offer a direct investment in the VIX Index, so volatility traders must be content with proxies.

CVOL’s established competitor, Barclays’ VXX also tries to correlate with the VIX, but consistently fails, both in magnitude and its steady erosion in value due to contango.   In order to avoid some of VXX’s weaknesses CVOL uses longer dated volatility futures (third and forth month instead of first and second), adds a short position in the S&P500, and uses leverage.   This witches brew is spelled out with equations in Citigroup’s CVOL pricing supplement / prospectus, but I don’t know if I will ever have enough motivation / coffee to drag myself through those.

In any event, the proof is in the pudding, so below are the percentage results for CVOL compared to VXX and VIX, using its first day of trading, November 15th as the basis.   Very few shares of CVOL were traded during the week so regular stock charts are mostly useless.   I captured four snapshots of  the market during the week, plus I took the actual trade values of some of the CVOL trades and used their timestamps to lookup the corresponding VXX and VIX values.   The bid / ask spread of CVOL ranged from around .53 to 1.10 during my snapshots.  I used a value halfway between the bid/asked for the chart below.

 

CVOL vs VXX and VIX, click to enlarge

 

Last week was a good test case, because there was a lot of volatility in volatility.  The VIX popped over +17% on Tuesday and CVOL delivered a very respectable +15% value, while VXX demonstrated its usual lethargic behavior with an 8% jump.   The last two data points were on Friday, and show CVOL out performing the VIX—something I wonder if VXX has ever done.   On Monday we will see if this performance was due to the typical Friday sag in VIX (due to option traders compensating for time decay during the weekend), or over-leverage in the CVOL machinery.

VXX has proved to be an abysmal long term performer (down 89% since inception), so the only believable reason for its multi-million share daily volume is traders trying to speculate on / hedge short term volatility and the associated market declines.

The early returns suggest that CVOL will be a better choice.

Betting on fear to fade

Tuesday, May 18th, 2010

Bought VIX June  puts at 4.6,  the VIX index was around 31 at the time.   Barring another bear market I think we will see the VIX pull back from the recent spikes.

For related posts see:

Betting that fear will fade

Monday, January 25th, 2010

I created a bear spread on VIX options, selling the deep-in-the-money  18 Feb Calls and buying 25 Feb Calls as disaster insurance.   The net credit was 4.15.  Splitting the ask / bid on both options gave a 4.20 starting point, but  when it didn’t fill I gave up a nickel–then the order filled in a couple of minutes.   The 18 calls filled at 6.22 and the 25 calls at 2.04.  Break-even at expiration will be VIX at 22, which didn’t seem like too much of a risk.  I estimated  (based on the 10 Feb call bid / ask numbers), that the VIX Feb futures were right around 24 at the time, and the VIX was up into the 25 range.

FAQ on VIX, the “Fear Index”

Saturday, January 2nd, 2010
  • Why do they call the VIX Index the “Fear Index” or “Fear Gauge”
    • Because the VIX almost always goes up when the market goes down. The scarier the decline the higher the VIX tends to go. In the worst part of the 2008/2009 bear market it went as high as 80. In Dec 2009 it has been averaging around 22. In strong bull markets it historically bounces between 10 and 15.
  • How can I get quotes for the VIX?
    • For Yahoo Finance use ^VIX
    • For Schwab use $VIX
    • For Fidelity use VIX
    • Google Finance—apparently not available
    • For VIX options quotes—check your broker’s home page, Yahoo Finance (where they seem to come and go), or here
  • How can I buy or short the VIX Index?
    • You can’t short VIX directly.  It is a computed index like the Dow Jones Industrial Average, but instead of stocks this index is related to option prices on the S&P 500 index (SPX). As the options get relatively pricier the VIX index goes higher.
    • You can short VIX indirectly, with proxies that correlate fairly well with the VIX index.  See “Going short on VIX” for details.
  • Is there any way to speculate on the VIX?
    • You can buy options and futures on the VIX. I have not done futures trading on the VIX, but I have done VIX options. While not inherently riskier than options on stocks, these options have some unusual wrinkles and characteristics that you should know about. For example the VIX options typically don’t follow the VIX itself all that well on most days—they tend to not drop as rapidly as the VIX index itself, or climb as fast. This can be really frustrating! In addition the “spread”—the difference between the cost to buy and to sell is quite high on these options. This is never in your favor–this makes it harder to make a profit, but be aware you don’t have the pay the listed prices, you can often buy or sell close to the midpoint of these two prices.
    • There are also multiple ETNs (Exchange Traded Note) and ETFs that are intended to track the VIX index. See Volatility Tickers for a complete list. These trade like stocks (however sometimes they are hard to short).   VXX doesn’t do a particularly good job of tracking the VIX.  It doesn’t jump as much as the VIX in scary times, and structurally it is fated to lose value over time.   It is best suited for short term positions.  See “How to go long on VIX.
    • In addition, XIV is an ETN that is designed to deliver the inverse daily return of  VXX.  This is a good choice when you think the VIX index is going to drop.  See here for more information.
  • Why don’t VIX options track the VIX?
    • For a typical options marketplace to function the option market makers need to be able to buy or sell the thing the options are based on (this is called the “underlying”).  So far no one has figured out how to make the VIX index investible—it is a computed index that can’t be cost effectively replicated in the real world.  Since the VIX index isn’t practical as an underlying VIX options are based on volatility futures that are traded on commodity exchanges.   These volatility futures typically lag the VIX index in both directions, up and down.
    • In normal situations the next volatility future to expire will move about 50% of the VIX index (e.g., if the VIX increases 4% the futures will probably move about 2%).
    • To track the price of the VIX options underlying future for a given month, look at the $10 strike call for that month, split the bid/ask price and add 10.  That will give you a good estimate of the current future’s price.

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VIX Option Expiration Dates Jan, Feb, Mar 2010

Friday, January 1st, 2010

The next three expiration dates for VIX options are:

January 20th, 2010  (the week after equity options expire)
February 17th, 2010
March 17th, 201o

The last day of trading for the options expiring that month is the day before (Tuesday) the dates above.

Source:    2010 OCC Calendar