What Caused the Volatility Tsunami on 5-Feb-2018?

In the afternoon of February 5th, 2018, what looked like a bad day for a group of high flying volatility-based products turned into a devastating decline.  Four factors combined to ruin their day: A Flawed Architecture Relying on the Past to Predict the Future Billions Under Management A Record-Breaking VIX® spike Twenty-five minutes before the close of the New York Stock exchange on February 5th, …

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Goodbye VXX, Hello VXXB

Update 30-Jan-2019 VXX finished out its 10-year life today with a closing value of $38.28 and $449 million in assets. Barclays’ replacement product, VXXB, is revving up nicely with rapidly rising volumes and assets (it’s at $384 million now). Any VXX shares of record at end of day Tuesday, the 29th, will be converted to cash on the 30th. There was some speculation that the …

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Precisely Forecasting Price Ranges with Volatility

Using a tool like Bollinger Bands® to forecast future price ranges is a time-honored technique but its calculations are simplified and in some situations flawed. Incorporating the log-normal nature of stock prices into the calculations gives better answers. One greed inducing aspect of volatility is that it enables us to make theoretically sound forecasts about the future.  It doesn’t matter whether it’s stock prices, annual …

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Volatility White Papers and Presentations

Below I’ve collected links to some of my favorite white papers and presentations on volatility. I’ve organized them in the following categories: Volatility Concepts & Volatility Trading Probability Distributions—Normal and Otherwise The VIX and VIX Futures Volatility Contagion—Will Short Volatility Destroy the World? Variance Swaps—the Technology That Underlies VIX & VIX Futures For an index of my 60+ posts on volatility see here.   Volatility …

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Using the VIX Futures Term Structure to Predict Volatility ETP Prices

Status quo forecasting is sometimes very easy to do.  For example, if you predict that tomorrow’s high temperature will be the same as today’s high, your estimate will be close to the actual high much of the time.  Predicting volatility Exchange Traded Products (ETP) prices is not so straightforward.

The VIX futures that volatility ETPs like VXX, SVXY, UVXY, and TVIX track are similar to stock options in that they have a time value that usually decaying.  Generally the longer the VIX future has until expiration the higher its price.  If you plot VIX futures prices versus time until expiration the chart often looks like the one below from VIX Central.  This curve is called the VIX Futures Term Structure.

The term structure curve can be relatively stable for significant periods of time—which raises the question of whether we can use the term structure to predict volatility ETP prices.

Even if the price vs time curve of the VIX Futures stays exactly the same, several underlying factors that impact the prices of the volatility ETPs are in a state of change.  For example:

  • The individual VIX future’s prices change as they approach expiration
  • The mix of VIX futures that determines the ETP values changes based on their time to expiration and their prices
  • The position size of VIX Futures held by the leveraged ETPs (e.g., TVIX, UVXY, SVXY, VMIN, ZIV) changes on a daily basis based on the previous day’s percentage moves

Assuming the VIX futures term structure is stable (including the Cboe’s VIX spot price) allows us to project how much decay/gain is “built-in” to the prices of the long/inverse volatility ETPs. This information can help us set strike prices for option strategies, set limit prices, and determine risk/reward parameters.  More than 80% of the time, the VIX Future Term Structure is in a configuration called contango, where futures with more time until expiration are priced higher than the “spot” VIX price.  While in contango, decay factors on long volatility funds like VXX, UVXY, and TVIX can be considerable as can the boost factors on inverse funds like SVXY, VMIN, and ZIV.

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