For most of 2011 SPY’s has been quite a bit higher than 2005 values for the same day, but this August there were 3 days where SPY closed within a half a point of its equivalent 2005 close. If this coincidence continues to be predictive, we won’t be starting a bear market for a while. Normalized volume for the last year has been quite a bit lower than 2005, but recently this has been at 2005 normalized values. The differences in the VIX volatility levels however are pretty stark—for whatever the reasons, our current market is a lot more volatile.
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