My 2015 year end prediction is based on the trend channel shown below, which has been in place since around May 2012. There’s nothing magical about this channel. The market will transition from it at some point, and I think it’s important to plan for that, but for the moment the channel is the trend. This sort of trend channel has characterized the last three …
Unless you have access to a Bloomberg terminal or something similar finding quotes and historical data for volatility indexes can be an adventure. Below I’ve assembled links to the online resources that I’ve been able to find. Links marked with a “$SFI” are historical data sets that I offer for sale—they don’t match the official indexes exactly, but they are very close. In many cases, …
The chart below graphically represents the calculation for the Cboe’s VIX® with near-real-time (20-minute delayed) data, The actual VIX is located on the black dotted line in the left-center of the graph. Click here for a larger snapshot for 12-Nov-2014. The VIX now uses interpolation between two VIX style calculations (VIN and VIF) on SPX options series that are a week apart—bracketing the 30-day target horizon …
The movements of the CBOE’s VIX® are often confusing. It usually moves the opposite direction of the S&P 500 but not always. On Fridays the VIX tends to sag and on Mondays it often climbs because S&P 500 (SPX) option traders are adjusting prices to mitigate value distortions caused by the weekend. In addition to these market driven eccentricities the actual calculation of the VIX has …
White Papers “Volatility: A New Return Driver?” A good non-mathematical overview of volatility, volatility products including futures and a couple example trading strategies using volatility Exchange Traded Products “The VIX-VIX Futures Puzzle?” A technical paper testing the forecast accuracy of VIX futures that includes a comprehensive technical overview of the VIX, VIX Futures, and volatility term structures. It skips the calculus but provides a …
