UVXY’s Next Reverse Split? April 11th, 2024

Proshares has announced a 1:5 reverse split, effective the morning 11-April-2024. Some people seem to anticipate that there will be significant price moves in UVXY, motivated by a reverse split.  I’m not in that camp.  UVXY’s price is tied to VIX futures’ price, which couldn’t care less about UVXY’s share price.  A long time ago it was common for stocks to have sizeable run-ups motivated …

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Patterns, Predictions, and the Correlation Fairy

In November 2009 I noticed a pattern—the S&P 500 index was tracing out a pattern uncannily similar to the S&P chart exactly six years previous.   In the four years from April 2009 through April 2013, the average difference between the S&P 500’s closing value for the same day 6 years previous was 3% and the yearend values were within 1.6%.  Using this correlation I predicted …

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2023 Ex-Div & Paydates Schwab: FNDB, FNDX, FNDA

2023 Schwab ETF Ex-Dividend and Pay date information Schwab has now published their ex-dividend / pay dates for all of their no-fee ETFs.  The published dates are: Quarterly Distributions:  FINDB, FNDX, FNDA 2023 Ex-Dividend Dates Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 22-March 21-June 20-September 6-December 28-December  (potential cap gains div) Pay / Distribution Dates 27-March 26-June 25-September 11-December 3-January-2024 (potential cap gains dist) Schwab Fundamental U.S. Broad Market Index …

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Assignment Risk, Short Calls, And Ex-Dividend Dates

If you are short call options in a stock or an Exchange Traded Product (ETP) like SPY or IWM you need to be aware of ex-dividend dates.  If your calls are in the money, even barely, your options may be assigned right before the security goes ex-dividend—and then you may have a problem. For example, let’s say you hold a credit call spread position: short …

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Backtest of VXX Volatility ETN From 2004 Including Yearly Fees

Volatility based Exchange Traded Funds and Notes (ETF / ETN) have only been on the market for a few years (see volatility tickers for the full list of USA based funds).  The oldest one, Barclays’ VXX only started trading in late January 2009.   Because of their relative youth, we don’t have actual trade data on how they would have performed through critical periods—for example, …

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