Covered calls are an example of positions that are short volatility. I hadn’t thought of it that way until Sheldon Natenburg, the author of Option Volatility & Pricing pointed that out in a fascinating interview in Expiring Monthly. A covered call position is profitable if the underlying equity stays the same or goes up, but in a big market downswing, when volatility spikes up, the modest …
The vibe of the IndexUniverse’s InsideETFs Conference in Hollywood Florida I attended in 2012 was one that I have felt before—a group that knows they’re changing the very structure of their industry. It’s not just about being new, creative, or disruptive—it’s the sense of knowing you have won. The mutual fund industry is still almost 10 times the size of ETFs/ETNs with $7.9 trillion in assets vs …
Originally posted 10-Jan-2012 One forecaster has correctly predicted the S&P 500 year-end close within an average of 2% for the last 4 years: Year End Estimated Actual % Difference 31-Dec-08 879.82 903.25 +2.66% 31-Dec-09 1111.92 1115.1 +0.286% 30-Dec-10 1211.92 1257.88 +3.79% 30-Dec-11 1248.29 1257.60 +0.75% 31-Dec-12 1418.30 ?? This forecast is not from a human, or a computer program—it’s the year-end closing value …
Since the CBOE’s introduction of Weekly options, our opportunities to take advantage of expiration day dynamics have quadrupled for many stocks/indexes. Depending on your position, it is fascinating/horrifying to watch the premium collapse on options in their last couple hours of trading. Jeff Augen in SFO weekly has written an interesting article (New Approach to Trading on Expiration Day) on some of the underlying mechanisms behind …
One of the persistent characteristics of the CBOE‘s VIX® index is the Christmas Effect—the tendency for VIX to drop down to relatively low levels during the Christmas holidays. The CBOE’s VIX volatility December futures predict this drop for months in advance, and it has come to pass again this year. I am aware of at least three possible explanations for this: Option market makers and others …
