Precisely Forecasting Price Ranges with Volatility

Using a tool like Bollinger Bands® to forecast future price ranges is a time-honored technique but its calculations are simplified and in some situations flawed. Incorporating the log-normal nature of stock prices into the calculations gives better answers. One greed inducing aspect of volatility is that it enables us to make theoretically sound forecasts about the future.  It doesn’t matter whether it’s stock prices, annual …

Read morePrecisely Forecasting Price Ranges with Volatility

How Does VelocityShares’ ZIV Work?

Update Effective July 2nd ZIV stopped trading on national exchanges (press release). The issuer, Credit Suisse (CS) halted share creations effective July 3rd but is not terminating the fund. They reserve the right to do so but don’t have to until 2030. ZIV is currently trading on OTC exchanges, e.g., OTCMarkets.com and is currently trading pretty close to its IV price, the theoretic value of …

Read moreHow Does VelocityShares’ ZIV Work?

Free Bitcoin/Bitcoin Futures/GBTC Quotes, Charts, & Historical Data

Finding quotes and historical data for Bitcoin, Bitcoin futures, Bitcoin options can be an adventure.  Below I’ve assembled links to the online resources that I’ve been able to find. In many cases, data is available from multiple sources.  I did not attempt to list all of them. BTC Quotes Yahoo Finance (BTC-USD) Does not identify which exchange (s) it is using Shows market cap, supply, volume …

Read moreFree Bitcoin/Bitcoin Futures/GBTC Quotes, Charts, & Historical Data

A Better Way to Model the VIX

Models are useful. They help us understand the world around us and aid us in predicting what will happen next. But it’s important to remember that models don’t necessarily reflect the underlying reality of the thing we’re modeling. The Ptolemaic model of the solar system assumed the Earth was the center of everything but in spite of that spectacular error, it did a good job of …

Read moreA Better Way to Model the VIX

One Reason Why the New VIX Calculation is Better

The CBOE changed the way the VIX® was calculated on October 6th, 2014—asserting the change would provide a more accurate assessment of expected volatility.  The new process does look better to me, but I’ve been surprised that the new VIX and the old VIX (listed as VIXMO) sometimes differ by as much as plus/minus 10 percent. Disagreements between the two indexes are not due to …

Read moreOne Reason Why the New VIX Calculation is Better