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Guest Post: Breath Divergence—Signaling the End of a Bull Market? By Frank Roellinger

 
Thursday, March 9th, 2017 | Vance Harwood
 

Much has been written since the election about the stock market’s future.  I have long been convinced that certain hard, cold measures of the market are of far more value in estimating the market’s future than qualitative speculation based on political or economic developments.  The most important consideration for a long-term investor arguably is the likelihood of a severe bear market in the near future.  My approach, which I describe in The Modified Davis Method  has revealed some facts that I think have definite value in that regard. Read More

Is Shorting UVXY, TVIX, or VXX the Perfect Trade?

 
Friday, March 10th, 2017 | Vance Harwood
 

The charts for long volatility Exchange Traded Products (ETP) like Barclays’s VXX, VelocityShares’ TVIX, and PowerShares’ UVXY are astonishing.

 

vxx-uvxy

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The Cost of Contango—It’s Not the Daily Roll

 
Saturday, March 11th, 2017 | Vance Harwood
 

It’s well known that long volatility Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) like VXX, UVXY, and TVIX often experience devastating losses during market quiet spells—even when the value of the VIX is staying relatively stable.   These heavy losses occur when the VIX futures that underlie these funds are in a price/time arrangement called contango.  Read More

How Does SVXY Work?

 
Saturday, March 11th, 2017 | Vance Harwood
 

Just about anyone who’s looked at a multi-year chart for a long volatility fund like Barclays’ VXX has thought about taking the other side of the trade. ProShares’ SVXY is an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) that allows you bet against funds like VXX while avoiding some of the issues associated with a direct short. Read More

Backtests for VelocityShares’ BSWN, LSVX, and XIVH Exchange Traded Notes

 
Wednesday, March 1st, 2017 | Vance Harwood
 

I have generated simulated end-of-day close indicative share values (4:15 PM ET) for VelocityShares’ BSWN, LSVX, and XIVH Exchange Traded Notes (ETNs) from March 31st, 2004 through July 14th, 2016.

  • BSWN VelocityShares VIX Tail Risk ETN
  • LSVX  VelocityShares VIX Variable Long/Short ETN
  • XIVH    VelocityShares VIX Short Volatility Hedged ETN

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