A Tale of Two Bulls

  The prices of SPY (S&P 500) starting in March of 2003 and of 2009 have tracked each other surprisingly well over a 6 year period.   The current market has managed higher highs each year, but then that advantage has evaporated by the Christmas holidays. This year the market has already achieved the higher highs part of the pattern—and for the first time since this …

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The Volatility Landscape—May 2013

News CBOE The CBOE plans to extend VIX® Futures trading by over 5 hours—aligning with the London Stock Exchange open, and adding a 45 minute post settlement trading period 4:30 ET to 5:15 ET Monday through Thursday. Two new volatility indexes, DLVIX and DSVIX are documented on the CBOE website.   These indexes were developed in cooperation with the French bank Société Générale and are now …

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Schwab Websites Taken Down April 23, 2013—Denial of Service Attack

Originally posted April 23, 2013 Around 3:40 ET I noticed that Schwab’s web presence was completely gone.  StreetSmart Edge servers were not available, and www.Schwab.com was nowhere to be found.   Signing onto Schwab later there was the following message: ………………………………………………………………………………………………… A Message From Schwab APRIL 23, 2013 — Shortly before the stock market closed today, we experienced an exceptionally high volume of website traffic which …

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How Does VXX Work?

How does VXX trade?  How is VXX’s value established? What does VXX track? How does Barclays make money on VXX? VXX’s 2022 share creation crises On 14-Mar-2022, Barclays suspended share creations of VXX due to an administrative screw-up. During the suspension, VXX traded at premiums as high as 52% over its IV price. This premium over the IV price can develop because share creations are …

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VIX Futures—Crystal Ball or Insurance Policy?

Many people seem to believe that the CBOE’s VIX Futures market is attempting to predict upcoming CBOE VIX® values.  I think they are mistaken.  Most futures prices have very little to do with predicting the future. Futures contracts were invented to allow producers/consumer of commodities to limit their business risk by locking in future prices.  In exchange for eliminating price risk, they give up the potential for increased …

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