I was very surprised Monday morning when sentiment turned around and the market went into decline. Perhaps people were nervous that the House wouldn’t approve the budget proposal, but it seems more likely mixed economic news prevented any sort of euphoric reaction, or people realized that an agreement to add another trillion or two of debt really isn’t cause for celebration. I held onto my …
One of the scariest things about market panics is their unpredictability. All of us remember the dark days of 2008 and 2009, not so many the October 1987 crash. For me, both of those crashes carried the same sense of disruption—the feeling that things would never be quite the same again. I’ve been looking at the history of volatility because it’s clear to me …
Originally posted July 18, 2011 Update: VZZB terminated in October 2012, consistent with the 1.5 years or less of life that I predicted below. Barclays didn’t waste any time replacing its recently terminated VZZ ETN. The new fund, targeted at leveraged long performance relative to medium term volatility appears essentially identical to VZZ except for its new inception point (8-Jul-2011). Rather than follow daily percentage moves, Barclay’s …
I think the big picture on the overall economic situation is pretty scary right now. The factors I see, in increasing scariness: The debt limit drama in Washington is probably only a side show, but each side might believe that a bit of a crisis might help their cause. The USA economy is cooling off a bit, with the companies mortally wounded by the …
If you are looking for low risk yields above 1.5% per year, there aren’t many attractive candidates. Stocks seem risky, and if you believe that interest rates are going to go up in the next couple of years then bonds look risky too. Using IEF, Ishares’ 7 to 10 year US treasury bond fund as a example of risk—it is currently yielding 2.21%. Sensitivity …
