Where have all the sellers gone? Is fear in cash?

This bull run has been going on since the 8th of February.  A very long time without a correction in these uncertain times.   In watching the market action I have been surprised at the down days.   In-spite of the late January scary correction and market shocks that I would expect to send the S&P 500 down a percent or two, the market has shown remarkable …

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CVOL spreadsheet analysis

The spreadsheets (XLS or XLSX format) that can be purchased below backtest CVOL from Jan 2009 to December 2010. Approximately one and half months of real CVOL date was available when this spreadsheet was created, and the match to the backtesting was good.

SPY Ex Dividend Dates

For the next SPY ex-dividend date and estimated dividend go here. SPDR’s 19-Mar-2010 dividend update reportsSPY’s March 2010 dividend as $0.48  (I had estimated $0.52).  The pay date will be 30-April-2010.   The ex-dividend date is today, 19-March-2010.

Buy and hold v.s. market timing

The last few weeks have been painful for me–being on the sidelines while the market stages an impressive rally.   I don’t expect to call things right all the time, and there are worse things that just not making money for a month, but it’s not fun missing the call. In the typical buy and hold portfolio things have a different feel.   No position …

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SPY dividend capture strategies that don’t work…

Some SPY dividend capture strategies I don’t recommend: 1. Sell SPY short right before closing the day before ex-dividend Rationale:  Securities tend to drop by about the dividend amount when trading begins (pre-open trading) Problem:   The buyer that bought the stock from you deserves the dividend and the loaner that loaned you the stock you sold (probably unknowingly), deserves the dividend too.  Two dividends, one …

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