Guest Post: Breath Divergence—Signaling the End of a Bull Market? By Frank Roellinger

Much has been written since the election about the stock market’s future.  I have long been convinced that certain hard, cold measures of the market are of far more value in estimating the market’s future than qualitative speculation based on political or economic developments.  The most important consideration for a long-term investor arguably is the likelihood of a severe bear market in the near future.  My approach, which I describe in The Modified Davis Method  has revealed some facts that I think have definite value in that regard.

The most important harbinger of danger in the market that I have found is the behavior of the NYSE daily cumulative advance-decline line relative to the S&P 500.  In the early stages of a bull market, both advance dramatically.  Corrections occur along the way, and for a time the recoveries are strong enough to propel both to successive new highs. However, eventually the smaller stocks begin to falter, and the S&P makes a new high while the cumulative a-d line does not.  This phenomenon, which I call “breadth divergence”, has occurred prior to the end of virtually every bull market since 1929, and there is no reason to think that it will be any different this time.

My method doesn’t rely just on breath divergence.  It takes other factors going red before I trigger a short trade.

Read moreGuest Post: Breath Divergence—Signaling the End of a Bull Market? By Frank Roellinger

High Sigma Events—They’re Not All Black Swans

After every crash or major geopolitical event that roils the market we are exposed to graphics like this one containing sigma numbers:   The message associated with these charts is usually, “We should be very worried because the events that just occurred were really unlikely.” The reader, on the other hand, should be thinking: the person that wrote this really doesn’t understand statistics or Black …

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Modified Ned Davis Method—Breadth Divergence, by Frank Roellinger

Over the years I have developed a lot of respect for the condition of breadth divergence, when an index such as the S&P 500 is rising and the NYSE daily cumulative advance-decline line is not.  In January 2016 I listed the performance of my method on the short side as a function of the number of consecutive weeks of divergence at the time of the …

Read moreModified Ned Davis Method—Breadth Divergence, by Frank Roellinger

Frank Calls the Corrections with His Modified Ned Davis Method

In September 2013, I published a post written by Frank Roellinger on his stock market trading system—a modification of the Ned Davis system first published in the 80s. Since Frank’s work was first published here he has shifted his Russell 2000 positions 11 times, each move reported here and on my twitter account.   His hypothetical portfolio value has increased  from 1658 to 1936 (+16.7%)—impressive given …

Read moreFrank Calls the Corrections with His Modified Ned Davis Method

Guest Post: Short “Sweet Spot” Approaching?  —by Frank Roellinger

Probably the most difficult thing to do in stock market investing is to identify a good time to sell.  Many technical indicators have been devised to identify lows around the time they occur or soon thereafter with a moderate degree of success, but to my knowledge that has not happened for tops with comparable success. My own modified Davis method does not do a very …

Read moreGuest Post: Short “Sweet Spot” Approaching?  —by Frank Roellinger