One of the scariest things about market panics is their unpredictability. All of us remember the dark days of 2008 and 2009, not so many the October 1987 crash. For me, both of those crashes carried the same sense of disruption—the feeling that things would never be quite the same again. I’ve been looking at the history of volatility because it’s clear to me …
All of the volatility based ETN/ETF products are relatively new. Barclays’ VXX and VXZ oldsters started in January 2009—just a few months before the end of the 2008/2009 crash. This lack of historical data over full market cycles makes it hard to assess the risks associated with new products—such as VelocityShares’ ZIV (medium-term inverse volatility) which started in November 2010. test I have backtested ZIV starting from …
I used to share stock tips with my brothers-in-law. Before the tech crash I could offer up a few stocks I liked, and they would often make some money. The crash painfully ended the easy money and I moved on to index funds. They didn’t think indexes were near as much fun. One Easter one of my brothers-in-law asked what I was investing in. …
Update. Barclays’ responded to the problems noted below with their IVOP ETN. It has now has a similar situation that XXV has—near its max price and very low leverage. See this post for more information. ************************************************************* Originally Posted December 11, 2011 Question: What would the value of Barclays’ inverse volatility XXV ETN be if Barclays’ volatility VXX ETN goes to zero? Answer $40 / share …
This spreadsheet allows you to enter in any trading date between 30-Jan-2009 and 11-Nov-2011 to backtest the profit/loss performance of a short VIX / short XIV strategy. See this post for more information and example charts. See ordering information at the very bottom of this post.
