Crossover

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For the first time since late May the 2010 price of SPY has risen above the 2004 price for the same day.    Not much else to say except this latest rally does offer a little hope that we aren’t riding a bear trend into a double dip.

More SPY weeklies while Schwab plays catch-up

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Update 3-Feb-2011:  Schwab recently added weekly  and quarterly option support to all their trading platforms.  See here for more information. Update:  In March 2011 Schwab plans to introduce StreetSmart Edge™, their new flagship trading platform.   Among other things this platform will include, “Major options trading improvements, including the ability to trade weekly and quarterly options.” When SPY dropped to 111 this morning I started …

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Predicting the future: 27-July-2010

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I am an engineer by training.   It is in my blood to try to engineer a investment solution that gives good upside performance while structurally limiting risk to reasonable levels (e.g., no greater than the upside opportunity).   A few years ago I concluded that I had not figured out a way to do this, and that it is probably impossible.

For example highly rated bonds, usually not considered the riskiest of investments, are sensitive to prevailing interest rates.  AGG, a bond ETF is currently yielding around 3.7% annualized interest.  Its duration, a term that defines the average time until maturity for the bonds in the fund is around 4.    The duration metric quantifies how sensitive a bond investment is to interest rate fluctuations.

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Dealing with risk — diversified asset allocation

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Diversified asset allocation, the belief system that most investment advisors preach—has the “right”  mix of stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities spread out over the entire world.   This investor age dependent mix is rebalanced, typically quarterly, by reducing your investment in areas that have performed well and increasing your stake in areas that are now underweighted—presumably waiting their turn to perform.

I don’t think this is a bad strategy, but it does make the assumption that the future will be like the past (e.g., equities average around 10% growth per year over multi-decade periods, and that some assets classes like bonds and commodities tend to counterbalance trends in equities.

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Dealing with risk

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UPDATE — Redirected to Black Swans   I’ve been thinking about various strategies for dealing with limiting losses.   Many investment strategies exhibit moderate upside potential, with large exposure to downside risk.  For example, on average the broad equity markets have shown annualized gains in the range of 10% over the long term, but these gains are often punctuated with large downside risks (market panics) that are …

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