Although recent intra-day lows have crossed the 2010 trendline in the graph below I hallucinated in February we haven’t had a SPY closing yet that has crossed that line (104.87 for 9-June-2010). My crystal ball has been notably hazy recently, but I’m still thinking this is a correction and not the beginning of a bear market. I continue to be bearish on the prospects …
I’m optimistic that this generation of containment device will work–once they manage to trim the pipe. Bought BP July (17-July expiration) calls at 40 for 2.84. BP is currently trading at 38.34.
On June 1st 2004 SPY was well on its way recovering from a 5% correction that started in May. The jury is still out on whether this year’s 12% correction (based on closing values) is over, or just the beginning of a bear market. Six years ago we didn’t have the PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain) in financial turmoil, or a big …
VXX options offer ways to take either long or short volatility positions. Unlike most securities VXX tends to go up when the market is down—which leads to some signficantly different options characteristics. Comparing VXX options to VIX options: Similarities: Both are ultimately based on the Cboe’s VIX futures Will show a strong reversion to baseline behavior when the market is behaving itself—the VIX index and …
This morning I put portfolio B mostly in place (see Three portfolios). I only put in 50% of the large cap weighting (so it is at 25% of the portfolio, instead of the eventual planned 50%). Psychologically I have found it is better to ease in a little with significant investments like this—if the market goes up from there you can tell yourself that you …
