The intraday SPY prices for the last two days have overlapped with SPY’s March 9th and 10th 2004 values. Since March 9th, 2009 the SPY values exactly 6 years apart have matched each other within 15 points all the time and on average have closed within 4.5 points of each other. While the calendar synchronicity is surprising, it isn’t surprising that the recoveries …
I bought SPY 113 April puts this morning at 1.89 when SPY was trading at about 114.65. I think the next major market move will be a downswing.
I have been not so patiently waiting for the market to pick a direction. I have been surprised at the strength of the rebound from the lows a month ago–we are less than a point away from SPY setting 15 month highs. My gut is still telling me we are in a trading range similar to 2004 and 1999 after big bull run-ups, …
The dividend capture approaches that I describe below do work some of the time. My experience is that they expose the investor to excessive risk relative to the payoff–or they don’t pay off often enough. Buy and hold dividend paying stocks If you love the stock, this is a fine strategy, but then it really isn’t a dividend capture strategy. The dividend is just a …
The surprising date / value / normalized volume correlation on the S&P 500 between 2004 and 2010 continues, with the 3rd of March SPY closings only differing by 3%. If 2010 continues to track 2004 then we should see an ongoing ramp in trading volume, with a 30 day moving average of around 300 million shares per day on SPY, compared to the current run rate …
