The tale of two rallies

SPY’s 2010 price path for the 8th of October is about 3 points higher that the 2004 trend top line, but that is consistent with 2010’s considerably higher volatility. Recently there have been articles noting relatively low trading volumes, but compared to the normalized volume in 2004 (which at an absolute level was about 3.5x lower) volumes don’t look out of line. The rally that …

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2010 — overachieving compared to 2004

The S&P 500 has already reached levels this year that weren’t reached until December 2004 in the tech stock crash recovery.   The volume levels are underwhelming, but on almost every other front the bulls are celebrating.  It doesn’t hurt that business continue to report very good numbers.   It is hard to get a good doom and gloom mood going with folks like Intel …

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Time for divergence from 2004?

Looking a the chart below you can imagine this year’s stock market getting back on the 2009 trend line,  leaving the 2003/2004 correlation behind.  But I’m still betting that the market is in a sideways mode, rather than a continuing raging bull. The most notable change in the curves since my last update on the 18th of March  is the big drop in normalized volume–something …

Read moreTime for divergence from 2004?