This bull run has been going on since the 8th of February. A very long time without a correction in these uncertain times. In watching the market action I have been surprised at the down days. In-spite of the late January scary correction and market shocks that I would expect to send the S&P 500 down a percent or two, the market has shown remarkable …
The intraday SPY prices for the last two days have overlapped with SPY’s March 9th and 10th 2004 values. Since March 9th, 2009 the SPY values exactly 6 years apart have matched each other within 15 points all the time and on average have closed within 4.5 points of each other. While the calendar synchronicity is surprising, it isn’t surprising that the recoveries …
I have been not so patiently waiting for the market to pick a direction. I have been surprised at the strength of the rebound from the lows a month ago–we are less than a point away from SPY setting 15 month highs. My gut is still telling me we are in a trading range similar to 2004 and 1999 after big bull run-ups, …
I’m continuing with the hypothesis that there are a lot of similarities to the 2003/2004 market that might help predict the future action of the market. Clearly volatility is higher now than the 2003/2004 period, and the transition from upward trend line to a sideways market has been scarier–but these are scary times. Looking back at 2004, the market went into a slightly declining …
