Prediction: Dec 31, 2015 S&P 500 close at 2346 up 13.9%

My 2015 year end prediction is based on the trend channel shown below, which has been in place since around May 2012. There’s nothing magical about this channel. The market will transition from it at some point, and I think it’s important to plan for that, but for the moment the channel is the trend. This sort of trend channel has characterized the last three …

Read morePrediction: Dec 31, 2015 S&P 500 close at 2346 up 13.9%

SPXH—Hedging the S&P 500 For Free?

Update TRSK & SPXH were shutdown in March 2018, probably because they never gained enough assets to be profitable for the issuer.  In general, these fund performed as expected.  They likely would have really done well in a major correction or bear market but that didn’t happen during their lifetimes.  Their main weakness is that they tended to lose value when volatility makes sudden shifts. …

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A Tale of Two Bulls

  The prices of SPY (S&P 500) starting in March of 2003 and of 2009 have tracked each other surprisingly well over a 6 year period.   The current market has managed higher highs each year, but then that advantage has evaporated by the Christmas holidays. This year the market has already achieved the higher highs part of the pattern—and for the first time since this …

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Prediction: Dec 31,2013 S&P 500 close at 1468.38 up 2.96%

For my 2015 year end prediction for the S&P 500 see this page. Update:  In the post below I wonder how long the close correlation between the S&P 500 and its prices six years previous will continue.   December 31, 2014 provided the answer:  5 years—the correlation failed in 2014 with an ending difference of 25.9%.  No half measures here.   This sort of pattern …

Read morePrediction: Dec 31,2013 S&P 500 close at 1468.38 up 2.96%

Prediction: Dec 31,2012 S&P 500 close at 1418, up 12.78%

Originally posted 10-Jan-2012 One forecaster has correctly predicted the S&P 500 year-end close within an average of 2% for the last 4 years: Year End Estimated  Actual % Difference 31-Dec-08 879.82 903.25  +2.66% 31-Dec-09 1111.92 1115.1  +0.286% 30-Dec-10 1211.92 1257.88  +3.79% 30-Dec-11 1248.29 1257.60  +0.75% 31-Dec-12 1418.30    ??   This forecast is not from a  human, or a computer program—it’s the year-end closing value …

Read morePrediction: Dec 31,2012 S&P 500 close at 1418, up 12.78%