Testing the bottom 2010 trendline
The closing value of SPY is within about a dollar of the 2010 bottom trendline in the chart below. There is lots of talk about a double dip recession, but I’m betting on a bounce.
SPY
Are we at the bottom yet?
After several sell-off days with low volume, the buyers seem to be coming back. I bought SPY at 105.22, sold 27-Aug 106 calls at 0.58. Breakeven is 104.64. Maximum profit is $1.36 per share. Livevol shows the 27-Aug 106 IV’s at 28 and the 18-Sept monthly IV for the 106 calls at 24. Right now, Livevol’s IV numbers are the only ones I believe for …
Two summers of doing nothing
Labor day is only a few weeks away, and it is looking like the summers of 2004 and 2010 will both end up flat for SPY. Three observations: Last week’s move above 113 was interesting, it was close to bouncing off the 2004 top trendline, perhaps we will finally see some sort of recognizable pattern to the market tops in 2010. Squinting at the …
Two days to go
I’ve been staying out of the market (except for USO), because I think the possibility of a pullback is fairly high. However, with two days to go on the SPY Weekly 6-August options (which are showing IVs in the 30s) things started looking attractive. I created an ITM covered call position, buying SPY at 112.45 and selling 111 strike calls at 1.84. …
Crossover
For the first time since late May the 2010 price of SPY has risen above the 2004 price for the same day. Not much else to say except this latest rally does offer a little hope that we aren’t riding a bear trend into a double dip.
