A Better Way to Model the VIX

Models are useful. They help us understand the world around us and aid us in predicting what will happen next. But it’s important to remember that models don’t necessarily reflect the underlying reality of the thing we’re modeling. The Ptolemaic model of the solar system assumed the Earth was the center of everything but in spite of that spectacular error, it did a good job of …

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Near Real Time Graphical VIX Term Structure

Anyone that follows volatility closely knows that short term views on volatility are much more dynamic than longer term. For example, if the market is moving from a dip into a “V” style recovery the CBOE’s 9 day expectation of volatility VXST, will drop much more than the 30 day VIX. A chart showing volatility expectations vs time is called a volatility term structure.  The …

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Volatility Related Indexes and Tickers

Unless you have access to a Bloomberg terminal or something similar finding quotes and historical data for volatility indexes can be an adventure.  Below I’ve assembled links to the online resources that I’ve been able to find.  Links marked with a “$SFI” are historical data sets that I offer for sale—they don’t match the official indexes exactly, but they are very close. In many cases, …

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Graphical VIX & VIXMO calculations

The chart below graphically represents the calculation for the Cboe’s VIX® and the legacy VIX (ticker VIXMO) which was used from September 22, 2003, through October 5th, 2014.  My apologies for the small size / non-expandable format, but this was the best near real time (20 minute delayed) solution I could figure out using Google Sheets. The actual VIX is located on the black dotted line in …

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Calculating the VIX—The Easy Part

The movements of the CBOE’s VIX® are often confusing.  It usually moves the opposite direction of the S&P 500 but not always.  On Fridays the VIX tends to sag and on Mondays it often climbs because S&P 500 (SPX) option traders are adjusting prices to mitigate value distortions caused by the weekend. In addition to these market driven eccentricities the actual calculation of the VIX has …

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