About


Harwood_006crop2My interests include volatility as an asset class, macroeconomic forecasting, investor psychology, tax efficient investing,  and risk management strategies.

 

My investment activities include trading commodity and index ETFs, VIX index related ETPs and their associated options, and dividend capture combinations.

 

My goal is relatively modest returns at appropriate risk while avoiding “buy and hold” strategies—which  I think are fundamentally flawed.

A couple things I believe:

  • The past does not predict the future  (see Nassim Taleb’s “Fooled by Randomness“)
    • This invalidates much technical analysis—although I think the psychology of stock movements is very important.
  • Past behavior of assets relative to each other (e.g., bonds vs stocks) does not guarantee future behavior
  • Markets fall a lot faster than they go up, typically at least twice as fast.  Buy and hold investing ensures that you will experience the worst days as well as the best days of the market
  • Investing in individual stocks carries many more unknowns than aggregates like index ETFs (e.g., greatly reduced the impacts of earnings surprises, analyst’s ratings)

I’m interested in consulting engagements.  My areas of expertise include:

  • Investment analysis and modeling
    -  Analyzing/backtesting/simulating financial products
    -  Manipulating large data sets
    -  Volatility as an asset class
    .
  • Business analysis and modeling
    -  Profit and loss, NPV
    -  Resource planning, budgeting
    .
  • Technology analysis, forecasting, testing
    -  Software, finance, electronics
    .
  • Synthesizing concise business presentations with effective graphics
    -  Product development, marketing,
    finance, manufacturing