Two summers of doing nothing

Labor day is only a few weeks away, and it is looking like the summers of 2004 and 2010 will both end up flat for SPY.    Three observations:

  • Last week’s move above 113 was interesting, it was close to bouncing off the 2004 top trendline,  perhaps we will finally see some sort of recognizable pattern to the market tops in 2010.
  • Squinting at the 2004 chart, it appears that six years ago in August the market switched from its sideways mode into the sustained uptrend that lasted until 2007, but the double dip fears of that recession were probably not vanquished until November 2004.
  • While the 2004 and 2010 values of SPY continue their slow dance of cross-overs, the volatility of 2010 measured by the VIX is running at least 50% higher.   Is this just lingering fears from the great recession, or does it mark a structure shift in the market?
SPY 2004 vs 2010,  click to enlarge
SPY 2004 vs 2010, click to enlarge


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