About


Harwood_006crop2

President:  Six Figure Investing

Advisory Board Member: Invest In Vol – The Volatility RIA

 

 

My interests include volatility as an asset class, macroeconomic forecasting, investor psychology, tax-efficient investing,  and risk management strategies.

I’m interested in consulting engagements. My areas of expertise include volatility as an asset class (VIX, VIX futures, volatility exchange traded products), options, backtesting, Monte Carlo simulations).

My investment activities include trading commodity and index ETFs, VIX index related ETPs and their associated options, and dividend capture combinations.

 

My goal is relatively modest returns at appropriate risk while avoiding “buy and hold” strategies—which  I think are fundamentally flawed.

A couple things I believe:

  • The past does not predict the future  (see Nassim Taleb’s “Fooled by Randomness“)
    • This invalidates much technical analysis—although I think the psychology of stock movements is very important.
  • Past behavior of assets relative to each other (e.g., bonds vs stocks) does not guarantee future behavior
  • Markets fall a lot faster than they go up, typically at least twice as fast.  Buy and hold investing ensures that you will experience the worst days as well as the best days of the market
  • Investing in individual stocks involves many more unknowns than aggregates like index ETFs (e.g., greatly reduced the impacts of earnings surprises, analyst’s ratings)